James Campbell: Dutton must win over the tradie heartland to get a shot at office
If Peter Dutton can’t move the dial at 2024’s Dunkley by-election, it’s hard to see where he’s going to get the votes he needs to win government, writes James Campbell.
Opinion
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As if poor old Albo didn’t have enough to worry about as he heads off into summer, he’s going to start 2024 with a by-election in an outer suburban marginal seat full of tradies. Sunday’s RedBridge poll finds that, since August, Labor’s primary vote has dropped nationally from 38 per cent to 33 per cent, slashing its two-party-preferred lead from 55.6 per to 52.8 per cent.
Consistent with previous RedBridge polls, the biggest fall in the government’s support has come from people with trades or TAFE and vocational educations, and this support is continuing to drop.
In August, the ALP’s primary with this group was 36 per cent versus 29 per cent for the Coalition. On Sunday, Peter Dutton’s crew lead 39 per cent to 30 per cent.
The turnaround in the two-party-preferred is even less flash for Albo, with Labor flipping from a lead of 59-41 to a deficit of 48-52.
No doubt you are busting to know how many of these folks there are in Dunkley, the electorate that will go to the polls early next year due to the untimely death of Labor’s Peta Murphy, who won it off the Liberals in 2019.
The ABS says 34.5 per cent of voters there have TAFE or vocational educations, the highest proportion of any Labor seat in Victoria.
In other words, if RedBridge is right, then Dunkley is the worst seat in Victoria for Albo to be facing a by-election.
Which is why you are probably now expecting me to say it represents a huge risk for the government, one that could determine the fate of his leadership if not the government itself.
Actually, I think the risk here isn’t to Albo but to Dutton.
Before I explain, I should say there are other reasons to think this is going to be a tough seat for Labor to hold.
Let’s start with the fact that because of the Christmas break, it’s likely to be held in mid-February, by which time whatever emotions voters may be feeling about the demise of their MP are likely to be fading.
On the other hand, their credit card statements from Christmas are likely to be fresh in their minds.
Not only that, the money from the RBA’s rate rise in November will start coming out of people’s bank accounts around the time Dunkley voters go to the polls. But there’s more.
The media narrative around the government since the Voice sank was that Albo needs to get back to the basics that people care about.
Which will make it easier for the Liberals to campaign on that old favourite “send the government a message”.
They’ll almost certainly run on that anyway but even a stopped clock gives the right time twice a day.
If he plays it right Albo might even use defeat as a cathartic moment to try to reconnect with the public. I’m not saying it will happen but it’s a chance.
More importantly, if it did come to pass the media will have factored it in weeks earlier, so it won’t come as a massive shock.
Remember too that, although the last election result there was 56.27 per cent to 43.73 per cent, that result was boosted not only by the swing against the Morrison government in Victoria but by the “sophomore surge” incumbent MPs often get the first time they are up for re-election.
For all these reasons, if the Liberal Party fails to make headway it will be an absolute disaster for Peter Dutton.
Since the last election saw the Liberals wiped in their former home-base of teal-land, Dutton has been treating winning that territory back as a problem for the next turn and instead concentrating his energy on winning suburban, outer-suburban and regional votes from Labor.
That Albo decided to spend most of this year talking about Indigenous affairs played right into this strategy.
Yes, Dunkley is in the People’s Republic of Victoria.
But even so, after the year the PM’s had, if Dutton can’t move the dial here, it’s hard to see where he’s going to get the votes he is going to need to win.
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