Is the curse of Malcolm Turnbull looming over Gladys?
Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull wrote the book on how to alienate conservative Liberals, and Premier Gladys Berejiklian has very obviously read it, writes Anna Caldwell.
Opinion
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The last thing voters want is another chaotic minority government. And yet Gladys Berejiklian’s NSW team risks edging further and further in that direction.
Some fear that the curse of Malcolm Turnbull well and truly looms over the state government.
You might remember back in 2017 when a gloating Christopher Pyne enraged conservatives in the Liberal Party by telling his fellow moderates they were in the “winners’ circle”.
He triumphantly promised that the left of the Liberal party would deliver marriage equality in parliament and that the day had finally come for getting their way under a Turnbull government.
Of course, at that point in time, Turnbull had just a wafer thin majority in the parliament.
As we know, the moderates didn’t stay in the winners’ circle.
Conservatives became angrier and angrier and made Turnbull’s life a misery — eventually forcing a challenge to his leadership.
“This has been Gladys’s Malcolm moment,” one senior minister said to me this week of Berejiklian’s chaos over the abortion bill.
“She’ll have to make sure not to go his way.”
What this minister referred to was how the Premier’s moderate leanings over the abortion debate — and the messy fight around it — had roused the party’s conservative core.
In recent weeks that core has felt isolated, railroaded and disrespected. Conservatives believe the abortion bill was sprung on them and they feel they have not been heard over their concerns about the legislation.
Take for example Tuesday night, when conservative Minister Damien Tudehope was labelled a “racist” for raising concerns about sex-selective abortions in Chinese communities.
It was a cruel and appalling attack on a man genuine in his concerns and beliefs. The attack came from the Greens — not the Liberal moderates — but only served to reinforce the isolation of the conservatives and their feeling of being under siege.
Another Turnbullesque factor for Berejiklian is how everyone was reminded by the failed leadership spill this week of her slim hold on majority government. Feelings ran hotter still as it seemed three rebel MPs would end up joining cross benches.
To be clear, the government is still largely united behind Berejiklian’s leadership.
Most see the failed leadership spill as a hand overplayed. And yet, they also can see how precarious the Premier’s authority is now.
“She’s there until a few of us decide she’s done and that’s not now,” one factional powerbroker said this week.
It remains a live possibility that rebel MP and former minister Tanya Davies will move to the cross bench.
She genuinely has not made up her mind, but remains open to throwing in the towel on the government if next week she is not satisfied with amendments made to the abortion bill.
If Davies goes, Berejiklian finds herself with the managerial nightmare of overseeing a government with a majority of one. This would empower just about every MP except for the leader.
Of course, the looming issues of stood-aside Minister John Sidoti’s ICAC investigation and speculation Deputy Premier John Barilaro could switch to federal politics mean that it is logically a very easy next step to minority government.
But even taking Sidoti and Barilaro out of the picture, with a majority of one, every MP in the joint party room knows they can threaten the Premier with a by-election or defection.
It is a weak position for any leader.
Add into the mix the deep-seated anger of conservatives who feel betrayed by the abortion debate and it’s a tough equation.
This is a government that was elected just six months ago on a platform of strong economic management, building infrastructure and its ethical compass.
This was a week in parliament when they should have been crowing about their renewed Triple A credit rating and smashing Labor over its ICAC mess.
But neither of those things could happen because of its own chaos — on an issue that was never properly canvassed in the election.
Government MPs are right to be devastated by this.
It was clear the Berejiklian’s cabinet was (mostly) united behind her on Monday night when the key players proclaimed their allegiance to her one by one on Twitter.
But anyone who has watched any leadership disintegration knows that once people are having to publicly declare allegiance there’s only one way that conversation eventually ends.
Berejiklian did not deserve to lose her job over the abortion debacle. The spill against her was never going to get legs. But damage has been done. Skin has been taken off. And in some ways, that’s all it was designed to do.
Now, as the Premier stares down the prospect of a dwindling majority we can all but guarantee chaos will be the order of the day for the years that lie ahead.
Every MP in that party room has been shown just how to cause drama this week. And with the bad blood coursing beneath the surface there will be many more who want to do just that.