How Anthony Albanese is using NSW’s GST riches to shore up Labor seats in Perth

Labor desperately wants to win more seats in WA to back it up against possible swings to the Coalition on the east coast at the next election. NSW taxpayers are helping to pay for this project

Back in 1933, Willie Sutton was known as America’s most famous bank robber.

A career criminal from a very young age, Sutton did at least 11 bank jobs over the course of his career, stole somewhere in the neighbourhood of US$2 million, spent much of his life behind bars and escaped from prison three times.

One of the many legends around the man concerns the time a reporter asked him why he was so committed to holding up banks.

“Because,” Sutton allegedly explained, “that’s where the money is.” It’s a great story because it illustrates a simple truth of human nature.

And it also provides a valuable lesson that cuts straight to the heart of what can seem to be hard and complicated questions of economics and policy.

Like, for example, GST and why Anthony Albanese is so determined to keep carving up the pie such that NSW — which, among other things, bears much of the burden of Labor’s Big Australia immigration settings — has to keep shoveling so much of its hard earned out west.

Quite simply, we are where the money is.

WA is set to keep receiving billions in GST from NSW.

Under the terms of the current GST carve up, implemented in 2018 in advance of the 2019 election, WA was given a guarantee that it would be no worse off under any split, even to the point of receiving billions in top-ups from the feds, that is, the taxpayer.

And that money is part of what Labor needs to keep power and perhaps increase its margin in WA.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signs journalist's arm with “NO CHANGE TO WA GST”. Picture: ABC

Now, to be clear, no one is suggesting that Albo is wandering in to the NSW treasury and saying “stick ‘em up”.

This is politics, so it’s just a little bit more subtle than that. Just.

Last month WA treasurer Rita Saffioti summed it up, saying in no uncertain terms that any move to adjust the way GST is carved up would be a disaster for Labor.

“Politically, it just would not work … (Labor) would basically, I think, lose every seat in WA” if they tinkered with things, she said.

Assuming she was right, that would mean Labor’s nine seats around Perth all gone.

There would certainly be no chance of picking up Curtin (held by independent Kate Chaney) or the marginal Liberal seat of Moore, two seats that could theoretically provide cushion against east coast swings at the next election. The message was clear: Nice little majority you got there, Mr Albanese, be a shame if something were to happen to it.

Jim Chalmers has been forced to reasssure WA that GST arrangements will not change. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Not surprisingly, Jim Chalmers was quick off the mark to assure WA that all would be well.

“We are sticking with the arrangements that give WA a fair share of the GST,” he said.

Not to be outdone, the Prime Minister, perhaps seeing a flicker of political mortality, went so far as to use a Sharpie to sign his commitment to WA on a local reporter’s arm.

It was a bizarre and over-caffeinated display from Albanese, who whipped out the marker to commit to the deal “in stone”.

“I’d be happy to sign your arm if you like,” Mr Albanese told journalist Dylan Caporn (whose LinkedIn reveals, just coincidentally, he used to work for Labor MP Patrick Gorman).

“If we’re going to have a stunt, let’s do a good one.” Well, indeed.

The only problem, again, is that this is not just a stunt but a very expensive one. To take a cynic’s view, trainloads of cash are being shipped west to shore up and perhaps increase Labor’s vote.

The Perth metro seat of Curtin was won on a two candidate preferred result of 2657 votes, though Labor’s candidate was more a vehicle for preferences to flow through to the independent than a serious starter in 2022.

Iron ore falls from a conveyor into a bulk carrier at the port in Port Hedland, Australia. Photographer: Picture: Getty Images

Meanwhile, in Moore, the Liberals got in on less than 1500 votes after preferences and Labor smells blood after incumbent Ian Goodenough lost his preselection.

Put together, those two seats just need a little over 4000 votes, while next year alone WA will receive more than $6.2 billion more in GST revenue than it would have were the 2018 figures in force — a wild $1.5 million per vote, to go back to the state treasurer’s predictions.

WA, of course, says the east has it all wrong. According to them, the money the country ships to WA winds up ultimately reinvested in mining, making the rest of the nation stronger. But either way, the greatest irony of all in this saga is that the GST carve-up deal and its generous floor for WA was authored by none other than Scott Morrison when he was treasurer in the Turnbull government.

This is the same Morrison that Albanese thundered against as opposition leader and continues to blame for every hang nail and papercut, having in the past called him “morally bankrupt” and slammed him for everything from secret ministries to “sports rorts”.

Which brings us to another quote that sums up the whole GST and how it looks depending on where you sit.

“It’s only a rort if you’re not in on it.”

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