High-profile challengers an unwelcome distraction for split Liberals

David-and-Goliath battles in the upcoming federal election will see high-profile independents challenge three senior government MPs, very publicly highlighting the Liberal Party’s internal struggle over what it stands for.

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The rise of the independent MP is an enticing narrative in the lead-up to the May election. A series of David-and-Goliath battles where senior Liberal Party MPs will be challenged by notional liberals who feel the party has lost its way.

With Labor heading for a romping victory, election-night eyes will instead be tuned to the Liberal-held seats of Flinders, Warringah and Kooyong, where two Cabinet ministers and a former prime minister are facing a revolt.

Once the jewels in the Liberals’ crown, these seats are now vulnerable.

Zali Steggall will challenge Tony Abbott for his seat of Warringah. Picture: AAP

Tony Abbott is a popular local member. Picture: John Feder

But those champing at the bit for these blue-on-blue contests should remember Australia’s voting system overwhelmingly favours major parties, making it difficult for independents to win Lower House seats.

Winning aside, the conditions are perfect for high-profile independents to run an interference campaign, further derailing the government’s campaign.

In 2016 support for independents hit the highest level since the end of World War II.

In the Lower House, one in eight voters backed a candidate not aligned with Labor, the Coalition or the Greens.

In the Senate, more than one in four first-preference votes was directed to an underdog candidate. But dethroning long-serving Liberals won’t be easy.

Health Minister Greg Hunt will also have a fight on his hands. Picture: Anna Rogers

Ex-Liberal Julia Banks is running against Mr Hunt as an independent. Picture Gary Ramage

Perhaps the most compelling electoral test will be in the seat of Flinders, where Health Minister Greg Hunt is facing a challenge from former Liberal MP Julia Banks.

The Liberal Party’s internal struggle over what it stands for will form the backdrop to this test.

Up the road in the leafy Melbourne seat of Kooyong, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will also face a challenge — from high-profile independent candidate Oliver Yates.

Unlike Hunt, Frydenberg will be offered greater protection for his loyalty during the August spill.

Barrister and former champion skier Zali Steggall will be the biggest roadblock on Tony Abbott’s mission to win the seat of Warringah for the 10th time.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will have competition in Kooyong. Picture Kym Smith

high-profile challenger Oliver Yates. Picture: Twitter

Until Steggall entered the race last weekend, a Melbourne Cup-size field of candidates seemed more likely to deliver victory to the former prime minister by splitting the anti-Abbott vote.

The victory of independent candidate Kerryn Phelps in Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth should be a warning to Abbott, but Warringah will be a different fight.

Phelps benefited from strategic voting, and harnessed the immediate anger in Turnbull’s ­removal.

It is also difficult to overlook Abbott’s campaign ability or his local popularity in Warringah, where he has deep ties to the community.

These battles are more ­likely to prove a distraction for the likes of Hunt, Abbott and ­Frydenberg. This uprising of independent candidates is ­unlikely to blow up the two-party duopoly.