Federal budget 2022: Joe Hildebrand analysis

The 2022 federal budget is a campaign carpet bomb, a vote heist and a poison pill all rolled into one political weapon of mass attraction.

This isn’t really a Budget. It’s a campaign carpet bomb, a vote heist and a poison pill all rolled into one political weapon of mass attraction.

And it’s targeted directly at traditional Labor heartland.

First, the carpet bombing. The Coalition is going to ease rising cost of living pressures by simply handing out cash, starting with $250 for welfare recipients – not exactly their usual target market. That’s six million Australians.

The Budget also throws in an extra $420 for low and middle income earners as a tax offset. That’s another 10 million Australians.

And yes, these payments are one-offs – a sugar hit if you like – but sugar is what you need if you’re trying to lay a honeytrap.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg after delivering his 2022 Budget speech in the House of Representatives. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

As it stands that’s 16 million Australians who will have to vote for the Coalition if they want to trouser the cash – which is why you will likely see Labor quickly match the promises.

The second part of the Budget strategy is more, well, strategic. The Coalition is giving $5,000 direct to new apprentices to help cover their costs.

This is a direct play for the heart of the quintessential blue-collar voter right at the beginning their working life.

Such workers were once considered rusted on Labor voters but John Howard managed to flip enough of them at the 1996 election for them to be ever after known as “Howard’s battlers” and Labor has never fully recovered, with a gnawing sentiment among many tradies that the party has been hijacked by inner-city elites.

By shoving cash into the hands of apprentices the Coalition is making its most emphatic and shameless case yet that it is now the natural party of the blue-collar worker. If the investment pays off these workers will remember who ponied up when they were starting out and earning their least.

Thus even if the Coalition loses the election it may yet secure a psychological toehold in a generation of voters who would otherwise be expected to vote Labor.

Saverio Russo — with kids Sofia Russo, Edoardo Russo and niece Valentina Russo — have felt the sting of rising petrol prices. Picture: Richard Dobson

This brings us to the third element of this fiscal trifecta, the decision to cut fuel excise by half in order to save motorists 22 cents a litre.

This is the sort of thing a chuckling film noir mobster might refer to as “a little insurance policy” and it’s certainly a doozy.

Against the advice of every sane economist in the land, Josh Frydenberg slashed the excise by even more than had been flagged – from midnight Tuesday no less. But don’t worry folks, it’s only for six months.

This means that in late September whichever party is in power will be obliged to instantly jack up petrol prices by more than 20c a litre at the stroke of a pen.

It would take several lifetimes for any politician to accumulate that much courage – or that much of a death wish. Thus there are three possible scenarios that flow from this:

1. The measure is popular enough to help the Coalition to victory and when it comes to reversing or extending it, who cares? They won!

2. Labor wins and four months after taking power is forced to piss off the entire nation – to the delight of the Frydenberg-led Opposition; or

3. Labor wins and is forced to continue the cut, upon which the Coalition will instantly accuse it of acting irresponsibly creating a Budget black hole.

And so while the measure is insane economically, it is fiendishly clever politically.

Working Australians like Daniel Black, reliability and maintenance manager at Baxter Healthcare in Old Toongabbie, are at the forefront of the 2022 federal budget. Picture: Justin Lloyd.

If Frydenberg came up with that one himself someone should give him a membership to Mensa.

All of this goes to show that while this is a government clearly on the ropes, it is not yet on the mat and certainly showing no signs of tapping it.

On the contrary, they say the best defence is a good offence and the Coalition has come out swinging, openly trying to steal blue collar votes from right under Labor’s nose.

This is exactly the sort of thing that makes Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg such wily political opponents.

As the pandemic has shown, they will not die in an ideological ditch if the national interest demands otherwise. And they certainly won’t do so if their survival demands otherwise.

The good news is this has put the hearts and minds – and hip pockets – of working people front and centre of this campaign and both parties will now be forced to focus on bread and butter issues instead of the inane ideological outrages that so often dominate political debate in this country.

Frankly it’s about bloody time.