Electoral redistribution throws spanner in the works for Libs

Factional infighting, like history, could end up repeating, writes James O’Doherty

The definition of insanity is repeating identical behaviour and expecting a different result.

The dictionary entry could well be accompanied by the NSW Liberal Party logo because the factional bickering that contributed to last year’s federal election loss is in the process of repeating itself.

When former Liberal Party federal director Brian Loughnane and Senator Jane Hume examined what went wrong in that campaign, they heaped criticism on the NSW division for failing to preselect candidates early enough.

Significant infighting among the party’s factional bosses meant that, in some cases, candidates were only finalised weeks before polling day.

Maria Kovacic, for example, was only confirmed as the candidate for Parramatta in April.

“The experience of the Party in recent elections where a number of Divisions did not conduct some key preselections in a politically timely way cannot continue in the future if the Party is to present strong candidates with a prospect of winning seats,” the Liberal’s election review said.

Peter Dutton has told the NSW Liberals to finalise their preselections as early as possible. Photo: Steve Pohlner

In a bid to prevent history repeating, federal leader Peter Dutton told the NSW division to clean up its act and get preselections done as soon as possible.

The only problem? The Australian Electoral Commission’s redistribution of electoral boundaries.

The redistribution throws a major spanner in the works. Booming population growth in Sydney means boundaries need to move around to rebalance the number of voters in each electorate; despite this growth, NSW is set to lose a seat.

Centre right faction leader Alex Hawke could face a preselection challenge. Picture: NCA NewsWire

The process will be completed some time before the next election, due by May 2025.

But we are only halfway through a long and drawn out process: in all likelihood, final boundaries won’t be completed until well into next year.

What that means is that any candidates who are preselected now might have to go through the entire process again 12 months from now.

Moving electoral boundaries could also change the factional numbers in a handful of seats, which could put sitting MPs at risk of an internal challenge. Liberal sources say the problem will be worst around the North Shore and North West, an area which is ground zero for a long-running factional war between the hard right and the centre right.

Bradfield MP Paul Fletcher could face a threat from the Teals.

Centre right faction leader Alex Hawke, who was former Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s numbers man, could face a challenge in Mitchell if hard right branches move into his patch.

Bradfield MP Paul Fletcher, from the moderate faction, could also face a preselection challenge.

It’s just one of the problems facing Fletcher. Changes to electorate boundaries mean that North Sydney MP Kylea Tink’s seat could be abolished. Liberals are already worried that she might run for neighbouring Bradfield.

Liberals say that following Dutton’s edict, the NSW division rushed through a number of preselections that will ultimately mean “nothing”.

The redistribution is a potential problem for NSW Liberal Party president Jason Falinski. Picture; 2GB

The electoral boundaries need to be finalised before candidates can be locked in, which means it could be a long time before the matter is settled.

The longer that factional infighting delays the process, the less time candidates have to win over voters.

If factional bosses in the Liberal Party’s NSW Division could learn from their mistakes, they would take a collective chill pill.

Factional infighting was blamed in part for Scott Morrison’s election loss last year. Picture: NCA NewsWire

But there’s very little chance of that: the factional wars that played a part in crippling Scott Morrison’s chances last year also played out at the state level in March.

Another election post-mortem, briefed to NSW MPs last month, found that party infighting also played a role in Dominic Perrottet’s election loss.

Like the federal result, the review blamed the loss partly on a dysfunctional state executive, paralysed by factional skirmishes.

Problems with the NSW state executive led to delays in preselecting candidates and exacerbated warfare between the party’s three factions, the secret review by former Premier Nick Greiner and former NSW MP Peta Seaton found.

The state executive is so dysfunctional that even the process of finding someone to do the election review was delayed because of factional infighting.

“Dutton’s edict of ‘get your preselections sorted early’ is nonsense,” one told me.

The Liberals have no chance fighting Labor at the next election if they are still too busy fighting themselves.