Sharri Markson: Malcolm Turnbull entering dangerous waters as crucial Bennelong by-election looms

THE sharks are circling. It was always going to be this way. Because Turnbull overthrew Abbott and because his 2016 victory was slim, he would never be safe as Prime Minister. He would always have to look over his shoulder.

THE sharks are circling. It was always going to be this way.

Because Turnbull overthrew Abbott and because his 2016 victory was slim, he would never be safe as Prime Minister. He would always have to look over his shoulder, never allowed what has unfortunately become the luxury of a full term to confidently govern.

There would ­always be blood in the water.

Arguments about the dangers of the transactional cost of overthrowing a prime minister are heard less and less among Liberals discussing the future of their party.

Disunity is strangling the Turnbull government. As it suffocates, senior ministers are emerging as future leadership candidates. While Turnbull’s relationship with his Deputy, Julie Bishop, has grown distant, Turnbull has drawn Peter Dutton in close, valuing his counsel.

The Immigration Minister, along with Mathias Cormann, have formed a Praetorian Guard around the Prime Minister, helping to stabilise the government while keeping the braying conservatives in check — as much as possible.

I understand there is minority support for Bishop in the party room and stronger support for Dutton, perhaps about 31 people. (Backbench conservatives, however, argue the numbers for Dutton are higher than this.)

National Political Editor Sharri Markson. Picture: Justin Lloyd

Dutton and Bishop are understood to not have a lot of time for each other.

It’s hardly surprising a conservative former cop with three children from Queensland who loves a yak with Ray Hadley wouldn’t have a warm ­relationship with a polished globetrotting former lawyer who wears pearl and diamond price-on-inquiry Margot McKinney earrings, estimated to be worth $35,000, to her foreign policy white paper launch.

Bishop and Dutton have been obvious potential candidates for a long time. What is new is the re-emergence of Scott Morrison as a leadership ­option, should one be required. Morrison and Turnbull, while close, have had an up-and-down relationship, like many treasurers and prime ministers.

I’ve published a few of their blues in stories over the past two years, including one classic Turnbull roasting of his Treasurer over his handling of the GST debacle in front of Cabinet colleagues at a dinner at the Lodge in February 2016.

Morrison voted for Tony Abbott in the leadership spill of September 15, but his faction swung behind Turnbull. For this reason, conservatives have shunned him.

Now, in the wake of the same-sex marriage vote, he has re-established his conservative credentials, taking the fight to Turnbull both privately and publicly for additional protections around religious freedoms.

“Resuscitated” was the word my friend ­Miranda Devine used in her same-sex marriage interview with Morrison on Sunday when referring to his future leadership credentials. It is the right word.

A test of Morrison’s authority came in Cabinet a fortnight ago when, as revealed by The Daily Telegraph, he disagreed with Turnbull’s proposal to have all politicians disclose their grandparents’ place of birth. The Prime Minister was overruled and a gentler version of the disclosure ­regimen eventuated.

Again this week, Cabinet had a lengthy discussion about whether to hold a royal commission into the banks and Morrison laid down the law on it. While it was a calm and rational discussion, views were firmly held.

Malcolm Turnbull is entering into dangerous waters. Artwork: John Tiedemann

Some ministers disagree with a royal commission but think it is pragmatically better to call one instead of face the embarrassment of losing control on the floor of the House, seeing as a commission of inquiry is inevitable at this point.

Had Cabinet decided on a royal commission into the banks, it would have put Morrison in an uncomfortable position, given he has ­argued so strongly against one in public.

Cabinet was only having these discussions because Queenslanders such as George Christensen and Barry O’Sullivan have threatened to blow the whole show up by introducing a Commission of Inquiry bill.

Understandably, ministers are fed-up with the backbenchers “consumed with selfishness and prepared to hang their colleagues and the government out to dry”.

A large part of the government’s problems are caused by those within its own ranks: selfish MPs blackmailing the government for their own personal gain and profile. The fact Turnbull’s sugar-hit on same-sex marriage has been short-lived is entirely their fault.

Pyne wouldn’t have had to cancel Parliament next week if there wasn’t a real threat from the Nationals.

I wouldn’t be surprised if George Christensen leaves the Nationals entirely when Parliament returns. It’s a threat he’s made before.

There is currently no plan to deal with these disloyal politicians threatening to cross the floor or introduce their own bill, which Labor would surely support.

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O’Sulllivan draws a comparison with Dean Smith and his renegade group but, in the end, Tim Wilson, Trent Zimmerman and Trevor Evans chose not to introduce their gay marriage bill and pass it with Labor’s support.

Instead, they agreed to the party room position of a postal plebiscite. By Christmas, they should have achieved their end goal of marriage equality without undermining the authority of the government. They did the right thing.

So the comparison is dead wrong. O’Sullivan and Christensen should be pulled into line by Barnaby Joyce and Turnbull for their unforgivable ill-discipline. They have a hell of a lot to answer for.

The next big challenge for Turnbull in trying to put an end to this disease of disunity is deciding the make-up of the final Cabinet he will take to the 2019 election.

He will need to be extremely careful about who he elevates, and who he shuns, in his pre-Christmas reshuffle, which is currently expected to be ­announced on December 17, the day after the Bennelong by-election.