Dominic Perrottet and Chris Minns are great leaders in charge of parties falling apart

Dominic Perrottet will do whatever it takes to win the NSW election. His problem is that Labor leader Chris Minns will too. And that’s because both men have no choice: The very survival of their parties could depend on it, writes Joe Hilderbrand.

Dominic Perrottet will do whatever it takes to win the NSW election. His problem is that Labor leader Chris Minns will too.

And that’s because both men have no choice: The very survival of their parties could depend on it.

Perrottet and Minns are, together, the most impressive combination of leaders to contest a NSW election in more than a quarter century.

But beneath each of them lies a party in shambles whose very survival could rest on their man coming home and which has ramifications for the whole country.

Labor was once the natural party of government in NSW, thanks, over the last half century or so to the once all-powerful NSW Right.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet.

Sadly, thanks to a combination of its own decadence and the membership creep of the activist left, the Right is a shadow of its former self. Or, as some of its leading figures typically put it, “the joint’s f***ed”.

NSW Labor has been unelectable for more than a decade as a result and it is only now with Minns at the helm that it stands a fighting chance for the first time since 2007.

If Minns wins he will be able to stamp his authority on a caucus that he was largely elevated in spite of, not because of. More importantly he will have a strong say — perhaps even the deciding word — in who becomes the next ALP state secretary, an appointment that will determine whether the NSW branch stays true to its sensible centrist tradition.

That will be vital for Labor’s future fortunes in NSW, where the electorate is practical, pragmatic and under greater financial pressure than anywhere else in the country.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet and NSW Labour leader Chris Minns at the 2GB studios for a debate. Picture: John Grainger

But it is also vital for the ALP nationally. National conference and national executive are both split between the left and the right by the proverbial winged insect’s appendage. These things are always byzantine and opaque but many ways the left already has the numbers.

Across the states, the right holds WA and SA but the left controls the far more populous Victoria and Queensland. If the NSW Right does not hold fast the whole party will fall to the left.

Some might point to Dan Andrews’ spectacular performance and think so much the better but the truth is the People’s Republic of Victoria has long been a law unto itself. It is unlikely the Andrews style of government would work in, say, Queensland — and we’ll find out if Steven Miles ever becomes Premier.

And so a Minns Labor victory will be key to whether the NSW ALP survives and thrives and whether the national party swings to the left or the right.

Meanwhile the Libs have even greater problems. Perrottet has done some phenomenal policy work recently but the NSW party machine is such a mess it cannot even manage to preselect ministers the Premier wants to get up.

When the party machine and the parliamentary machine split and turn on each other the apocalypse always follows — just ask Morris Iemma.

NSW Labor Leader Chris Minns. Picture: NCA Newswire / Gaye Gerard

Meanwhile the Liberal brand in NSW and across the country is absolutely trashed, as the party’s own election review found. It is under a double pronged assault from both the ALP and the Teals in Sydney and Melbourne and even lost two seats to the Greens in Brisbane.

NSW is the only state or territory on the mainland where the Coalition holds government. If you’re a major mainstream national party whose only bastion of power is Tasmania you might want to flick through the want ads.

This is why the state election is not just important for NSW but for the nation. It will be an extreme fight between two extremely moderate men.

And the truth is that NSW would be extremely well served by either leader, which makes the greater forces at play all the more important.

For all its faults, Australia has been incredibly well served by the two-party system, especially when both parties are vying for votes in the centre.

This, combined with compulsory voting — which leaves parties less beholden to activist elements or polarising issues — has given us an incredible history of electoral stability for more than a century. Meanwhile foundational pillars of democracy such as the US and UK have suffered seismic shocks in recent years.

And so both Labor and Liberal owe it not only to themselves and their supporters but to Australian democracy itself to get their houses in order. Minns and Perrottet can’t do it on their own.