Coalition’s future depends on what happens in the Nats’ party room

With the sense Team Joyce won’t stop until they have destroyed Michael McCormack, the Coalition’s future depends on what happens in the Nats’ party room. David Littleproud may be their only way forward.

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The Nationals’ leadership saga may well end like the Liberals’ “madness” did, with a third candidate emerging to seize the top job and resurrect the government’s prospects.

As Labor leader Anthony ­Albanese put it on Sky News last week, “if Barnaby Joyce is the ­answer, then what the hell is the question?”

Michael McCormack’s days appear numbered, some senior members of the government ­believe, and David Littleproud is the best alternative.

The sense is Team Joyce won’t stop until they have destroyed McCormack.

But unless they unearth some scandal — and they are trying their hardest — it would appear he has a bit of time on his side.

McCormack is criticised for being boring.

But so what? The same could be said of one of his most successful predecessors, Warren Truss.

Barnaby Joyce during Question Time. Team Joyce are expected to keep working to undermine Michael McCormack. Picture: AAP

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McCormack will never have the charisma of George Clooney.

It doesn’t really matter. What he needs to do is show his party room he can deliver.

And one way he can do that is by exploiting Scott Morrison’s disdain for Joyce.

While the Prime Minister can’t control what goes on in the Nats (can anyone?), he can assist McCormack by favouring the bush with extra spending or other wins in the Budget.

Before May, McCormack would be wise to make his wish list public.

Then, after the Budget, he could claim the victories it ­contained.

If there aren’t any, or he does a poor job of talking up the wins, then the writing will be on the wall.

The calling of an election in Queensland later this year could be a trigger.

By then McCormack would have needed to have turned the persuad­ables into firm backers.

McCormack’s next-best chance of survival is further missteps by Team Joyce.

Matt Canavan is a clever bloke, but resigning as Resources Minister to support Barnaby was a tactical ­mistake.

David Littleproud shares a laugh with Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Michael McCormack. Picture: Gary Ramage

It meant there was another promotion available for those who pledged loyalty to McCormack.

Llew O’Brien’s decision to quit the Nationals party room was also an error. The Barnaby backer is now ­ineligible to vote in a second spill.

We don’t know — and will probably never know — what the precise vote was in last week’s first secret ­ballot.

McCormack claims he had up to 16 to Joyce’s five.

Barnaby’s backers say they got within a vote of winning — 11 to 10. I think the truth is he garnered ­between seven and nine votes. One of those was O’Brien.

McCormack could have elevated Joyce — to either the Agriculture or Resources portfolios — in an attempt to quell the divisions.

Understandably, he chose not to reward the chief plotter.

No doubt Joyce believes he is the best person to advocate for Nats supporters, the “near-invisible Australians”, as he calls them.

Michael McCormack days appear numbered, with David Littleproud being tipped as the best alternative. Picture: AAP

But money should not be dismissed as a motivation here.

In the first instalment of their new podcast, Joyce this week apologised to Canavan for costing him $150,000 when he gave up his ministry. Canavan was more concerned about what it meant for his staff. Many lost their jobs when he exited Cabinet.

He doesn’t necessarily even want to come back in to the ministry. He’d rather spend more time with his wife and five children.

It’s a different story with Joyce. A return to the Deputy PM’s role, which is what comes with being Nats leader, would see Joyce’s salary soar to north of $430,000.

In July last year he spoke of how stretched his finances had become. He was suddenly supporting two families on half the money — as a backbencher he earns $211,000.

I will never understand why he made those comments.

One Nation leader Senator Pauline Hanson. Picture: AAP

Pauline Hanson called it “ridiculous” and “stupid” at the time.

So much for being Australia’s “best retail politician”, as Tony Abbott used to describe him.

Littleproud would, of course, only have a crack if Joyce challenged McCormack again. His path to victory could be like Sydney’s in the vote to host the 2000 Olympics.

As with Sydney, Littleproud probably wouldn’t top the first round of voting. He would just need to survive.

In a three-cornered contest, it’s unlikely Joyce would get the major­ity-plus-one required to win outright in an initial ballot, especially if O’Brien wasn’t in the room.

Then, in a run-off against Joyce, Littleproud could come over the top with the backing of firm McCormack supporters, just like Sydney did to early frontrunner Beijing when Manchester was eliminated.

Littleproud can be the Third Way, to borrow Tony Blair’s phrase, just as Morrison was in the battle that began as a face-off between Malcolm Turnbull and Peter Dutton.

Littleproud is the future of the ­National Party.

He has performed well since ­becoming a Cabinet minister in 2017, especially given he only entered parliament the year before.

Hopefully enough of his parliamentary colleagues will recognise that Littleproud is their best option — if McCormack cannot prevent a second challenge by Joyce.

How all of this plays out is pivotal to the future of the Morrison ­government.