China’s coronavirus cover-ups could cost Australia $5000 per person
The coronavirus could cost the federal budget $5000 for every man, woman and child in Australia. How much of that should we bill to China, asks John Rolfe.
Opinion
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Courtesy of the coronavirus, the federal budget could rack up deficits of $5000 for every man, woman and child. How much of that should we bill to China?
Scott Morrison and his team were relatively quick off the mark on COVID-19, taking key steps well ahead of them being recommended by the World Health Organisation.
But the Prime Minister would have been in a much better position to act had China not held back information on it.
The first state-controlled media reports on the virus emerged December 31. However, according to the Financial Times, Wuhan’s best-selling newspaper, the Wuhan Evening News, did not carry a single front page story about it between January 6 to 19.
“Chinese censors also initially instructed media to stick to reprinting official reports on the virus from government-controlled media,” the FT said.
“A Chinese reporter said … they were told by a medical professional that hospitals in the city were given a target of ‘zero infections’ among staff, with hospital deans liable to be fired for failing to meet the target. As a result, medical staff were slow to report infections among nurses.”
And this week leading Chinese media outlet Caixin reported that authorities issued a gag order after Wuhan labs sequencing coronavirus found it resembled SARS.
Donald Trump has been criticised for calling COVID-19 the “Chinese Virus”, an expression he used yesterday with a reporter. “Why do you keep calling this the ‘Chinese Virus’?” the journalist began. “A lot of people say it’s racist.”
Trump replied: “Because it comes from China. It’s not racist at all. China tried to say — maybe they’ve stopped now — that it was caused by American soldiers,” Trump said.
He was referring to comments by Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian. “When did patient zero begin in US?” Zhao wrote on Twitter. “It might be US Army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan.”
Both sides’ comments are unhelpful. The accusations directed at the US Army are conspiracy theory nonsense. And it is not a Chinese virus.
But it could have been better contained if China had been less concerned about saving face and more worried about saving lives earlier on.
BIS Oxford Economics chief economist Sarah Hunter said the federal budget could be in the red by as much as 4 to 5 per cent of gross domestic product in 2020-21.
The deficit could be about 2 per cent of GDP this financial year.
By my calculations, that adds up to more than $130 billion, as the government does what it can to keep the economy alive.
The government had forecast surpluses totalling $11 billion across those two years.
The BIS deficit figures — which Dr Hunter volunteers are “fluid” — suggest a cumulative budget debt of more than $5000 per person.
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