Campbell: Waiting on Albo’s next trick, because he’s going to need one

As the tax cut has gone down much better than they expected, Liberals are consoling themselves that it will be a memory by the next election while the damage to Albo’s brand will be permanent, writes James Campbell.

If you write about politics for a living, it is easy to forget most people couldn’t give a toss about what happens in Canberra.

It’s easy too to forget that the things that people do notice aren’t the same as we – the Canberra bubblers – think they should.

For the best part of a month, bubbler world has been obsessed with getting to grips with Albo’s changes to the stage three tax cuts.

It’s a sobering reminder that these questions may not be all that front of mind with voters – I haven’t been asked once about them by friends and acquaintances.

On the other hand, in the previous 24 hours to Saturday, I have been asked several times if the footage that emerged of Barnaby Joyce swearing into his mobile phone as he lay on the ground was a true and accurate reflection of the usual nocturnal condition of that statesman during sitting weeks.

Barnaby Joyce swearing into his mobile phone as he lay on the ground. This attracted more attention than changes to stage three tax cuts. Picture: X

For the past few weeks, Peter Dutton has been attacking Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for breaking his election promise on the tax cuts, finally landing on the line “the liar in the Lodge”, which I expect we will keep hearing until we are all heartily sick of it. Will it work?

The cynical political observer in me thinks most of us think everyone must by now understand that most, if not all, politicians are liars if for no other reason than they are flawed human beings like the rest of us.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Martin Ollman

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: Daniel Pockett/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

And if people see the world that way then what matters is not the lie but what the consequences that flow from that lie. If I promise my kids I’ll take them to Luna Park, but break it by taking them to Disneyland instead, they’d get over it a lot quicker than if I promised them they were going to McDonald’s but instead took them to get vaccinated. Which is why breaking a pledge “there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead” and then introducing one, or saying “no cuts to Medicare” and then asking people to pay to go to the doctor, ended up being a lot more damaging than giving people a tax cut they weren’t expecting will be.

The trick for the Coalition between now and the next election is to make the public understand while they’re getting a tax cut this year, thanks to the magic of bracket creep, they’ve actually just copped a big tax increase.

The problem with this is you need to understand how bracket creep screws you. Hence why Dutton is making the broken promise central to his attack on the PM.

If Sunday’s RedBridge poll, which shows the stage three tax cuts are most popular in the outer suburbs and regional electorates is right, it will undoubtedly help cut the expected swing against the government next month in the by-election in the Victorian seat of Dunkley.

At first, Liberals were consoling themselves with the thought the scale of the tax cut was too small compared with the scale of the belting voters have copped in the past 18 months to make much difference to the anger they were planning to mete out to Labor there.

But some opposition figures are privately conceding the tax cut has gone down much better than they expected, not because it’s a fistful of dollars, but because at least it shows the PM is hearing voters’ pain.

If this is right and voters are seeing this as a good start but nothing more, it will be interesting what Albo’s next trick will be, because given the motto of modern Australia is “What have you done for me lately?”, you can be sure he’s going to need one.

Liberals are consoling themselves that by the time the next election rolls around, this tax cut will be a memory while the damage to Albo’s personal brand will be permanent.