Campbell: Nice change to see an effort on issue most Aussies actually care about

After the Voice, talking about migration shows Anthony Albanese’s populist instincts have not deserted him, writes James Campbell.

After almost two months trying and failing to convince us they’re steering a course rather than being buffeted by events, the Government will be hoping next week brings a reset.

It goes without saying you wouldn’t expect any Government to be travelling well, which in that short period of time had gone from losing a referendum to appearing to lose control of a bunch of foreign murderers and child molesters.

But the deeper cause of the public’s crankiness were to be found in last week’s National Accounts, which showed that after a year of high inflation and interest rate rises the household savings ratio is at its lowest level since 2007. Sadly for the Government, there isn’t a lot it can do about fixing the cost-of-living problems we’re going through at the moment, not in the short term.

One of the few levers it can pull is the number of people it allows to come into the country. Next week the ABS is set to release immigration numbers for the financial year which ended in June. These are expected to show that in 2022-23, net overseas migration was well north of 500,000 – the highest number in Australia’s history.

There isn’t a lot the Government can do in the short term about fixing the cost-of-living problems, but it can cut the number of people coming into the country. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Tertius Pickard

Back in its May budget the Government was predicting it would be 400,000.

Next week, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is also due to release MYEFO – the update on how the predictions in the last budget are travelling – which, unless something is done, are also expected to show we’re going to exceed the 315,000 extra people the budget was predicting to arrive in 2023-24.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at Saturday’s press conference, promising MYEFO is going to show migration is set to fall in future years. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Sam Ruttyn

Which is why the PM was out at a press conference yesterday promising that, thanks to measures to be announced on Monday, MYEFO is indeed going to show migration is set to fall in future years. By how much and the way this is to be achieved we will just have to wait to find out, as the PM wasn’t giving away numbers.

What we can say is this: The majority of the drop will be achieved through cuts to the numbers of international students studying here and by making sure more of the students who do come don’t end up staying.

Expect a further crackdown on dodgy providers and garbage courses that are in reality scams for people who are really here to work, not study. That’s the easy part. Stopping people from arriving will be easier than getting them to leave.

International students arriving in Australia after Covid. The majority of a predicted migration drop will be achieved through cuts to the numbers of international students studying here and by making sure more of the students who do come don’t end up staying. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Gaye Gerard

At present it’s not hard to stay in Australia for years after ceasing to be any sort of student thanks to long delays in the Administrative Appeals Tribunal and the courts.

But although the Government is making efforts to cut the waiting time, it has so far baulked at limiting the circumstances in which decisions can be appealed. Until it is prepared to do so, I suspect that actually returning to the pre-pandemic levels of net overseas migration – around 240,000 a year – will prove much harder than cutting prediction of net overseas migration.

It will be interesting to see how the Opposition responds to the proposed migration changes.

Two lines of attack immediately suggest themselves. The first is to question whether the changes will produce the results the Government claims they will, ie it’s simply tinkering at the edges. The other option is to accept the predictions at face value but to say they don’t go far enough. Or a bit of both.

Anyway, after a year in which most of Labor’s political energy was devoted to Indigenous affairs it is a nice change to see the Government making an effort to get ahead on an issue that most Australians actually care about.

Having always thought of himself as having better political instincts than his colleagues, losing the Voice must have been a blow to Albo’s confidence. Talking about migration shows his populist instincts have not deserted him.