Bill’s 2016 election odds have shortened

IF Bill Shorten can defeat a first-term government he will enter the history books Is he that good? Probably not, says Catherine McGregor.

ONE of my favourite writers is the American conservative columnist George Will. In a ­moment of candour he once ­admitted: “I only write about politics to fund my baseball habit.”

I know how he feels. I claim to be a cricket writer on my tax return, but the golden game goes in and out of season. Politics, like diamonds, are forever. Indulge me today though, please?

Last week a handsome young Englishman named Alastair Cook became the first batsman from the home of cricket to reach 10,000 runs in Test matches. Even more remarkable, was the fact he achieved it at a younger age than the immortal ­Sachin Tendulkar and the impeccable Rahul Dravid.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten / AAP

If he plays as long as one might reasonably expect, Cook could become the greatest run scorer in the history of cricket.

Did anyone, except his Mum, predict this? No.

Even Cook would admit he has made the most of his limited array of shots and sound, unspectacular technique. He is a very good ­player and an even better man. But is he an all-time great? Better than Tendulkar? Tell ’em they’re dreamin’!

However, in cricket, as in politics, the numbers never lie. Indeed, the numbers possess a logic all of their own. Words are cheap, runs decide matches. If the polls are accurate, Bill Shorten is well on the way to stealing this election from under the nose of Malcolm Turnbull, who ­observers have expected to be prime minister since he was at university.

You see, Turnbull is a certified genius. He was a brilliant schoolboy debater. Then he was a Rhodes Scholar. He succeeded at every career or venture he attempted.

Losing a referendum on the Republic and the Liberal leadership to Tony Abbott were the only stumbles on his remorseless march to the top.

When he seized the crown last September, pundits told us he would govern for as long as Menzies and redefine Australian politics and culture in the process. Yet, ­according to the polls, he now looks more likely to emulate Billy McMahon, who excelled at winning every ballot except those involving electors.

Let me be clear. I expect the government to win. I suspect the decisive factor militating against Shorten is the innate Australian sense of a fair go. The memory of Labor’s fiscal profligacy is still fresh and most people will be inclined to give Turnbull a mandate in his own right to see how he goes. That sentiment, nearly as much as the GST, contributed to Paul Keating’s victory in 1993.

Yet if Shorten can defeat a first-term government he will enter the history books and the Labor pantheon.

Is he that good? Probably not, but as my old coach used to say: “Winners laugh, losers do as they please.”

Like Alastair Cook, Shorten has played within the limits of his abilities. He has run on the issues Labor owns: Medicare, education and redistribution of the proceeds of growth. The hysterical accusations that Shorten is a socialist are not shifting a vote among low-engagement voters. Swinging voters are about as angry at “economic correctness” as they are at political correctness. They know Turnbull and his Treasurer, Scott Morrison, were considering the very same tax measures Labor has proposed as recently as March.

Shrill warnings from ­inhabitants of think tanks whose main credential is a Liberal Party ticket in their wallet rather than a PhD on their wall are falling on resolutely deaf ears in marginal seats.

Again, despite the conventional wisdom from journalists, who affect a certain world-weariness about elections, I think this is truly fascinating contest. Then again I just admitted to loving a game that can splutter to an inconclusive end after five days, so I have a pretty low threshold of excitement.

But I thought Shorten ­really worked Turnbull over in the debate. At the halfway mark in the campaign, Labor looks much hungrier and better organised on the ground. This week Turnbull has been talking about himself and Shorten about issues. That is fine. But it reveals Turnbull’s team perceive his wealth and arrogance as problems.

They are belatedly trying to ­humanise him with voters, ­despite the power of incumbency, calling the election on his issues, at his timing, and all of his manifest natural talents.

Yet the bloke sneered at by Scott Morrison for his ill-­fitting suits, whose body ­language resembles a Thunderbird puppet which has ­inadvertently brushed against a live electrical wire, is on track to either win government or cripple his allegedly invincible opponent.

If I had to bet I suspect Shorten might still fall short, forgive the pun. But grab a piece of Alastair Cook to pass on to Sachin.

Catherine McGregor is a transgender woman and 2016 Australian of the Year finalist