Annika Smethurst: Smart conservatives will raise a glass to gay marriage, with caveats

THE latest attempt to rejig marriage laws started in the ministerial wing of Parliament House earlier this month when moderate Liberals gathered for a few drinks, Annika Smethurst writes.

Gay marriage is still be debated in Australia.

THE latest attempt to rejig marriage laws started in the ministerial wing of Parliament House earlier this month when moderate Liberals gathered for a few drinks in the office of a senior frontbencher after the House had risen.

As the shiraz flowed, a plan was nutted out to surprise Malcolm Turnbull with a letter signed by half a dozen MPs and senators calling on him to revisit the plebiscite policy in a Liberal party room meeting before the Budget.

Unlike last time, when then-PM Tony Abbott’s approach was likened to “branch stacking”, the Nationals would be excluded.

The plotters planned to pass the letter around Canberra hotels and apartments, secretly collecting MPs’ signatures ahead of the final sitting fortnight before the Budget.

Gung-ho moderates want the issue dealt with this year and believe the pre-Budget period provides the perfect cover, keeping disunity to a minimum.

The gay marriage debate is raging across Australia.

With the Coalition successfully executing its energy policy, a view has formed that the Budget messaging should similarly be given the best opportunity to succeed.

Removing the same-sex marriage “barnacle” in the next few weeks would, in their view, strengthen Treasurer Scott Morrison’s chances of selling his first post-election Budget.

The strategists also recognise Bill Shorten and Labor have been relatively silent on this issue this year and that goodwill won’t last forever.

A Senate committee examining the government’s exposure draft bill recently reached consensus on how the Marriage Act would be changed.

It was a big breakthrough and struck a balance between freedom of religion and freedom from discrimination.

Under the proposal, ministers of religion can refuse to marry same-sex couples based on their religious beliefs while civil celebrants would be required to marry all couples.

A Liberal-led change is considered a more palatable option for the hard right, who want those protections.

Advocates will also use that guarantee to prosecute their case for change.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

In response to the committee’s work, Turnbull reiterated that a plebiscite on same-sex marriage is his government’s policy despite his strong personal views on the issue.

If Turnbull maintains that position it could entrench the view that the Prime Minister is unable to navigate a way through difficult issues, unlike John Howard who stewarded five free votes in his 11 years as Prime Minister.

But Turnbull is in an unenviable position.

Allowing a free vote would trigger anger among conservatives who would see the move as a betrayal of the Coalition agreement.

Outspoken Nationals MP George Christensen, who opposes same-sex marriage, has even suggested the show would be over for the Prime Minister if he abandons the plebiscite.

The Conservatives want the Prime Minister to stick to his election promise to hold a pricey non-binding public vote while they loudly campaign to break another election commitment by amending race hate laws.

In advocating so strongly for this amendment, those on the right are providing wriggle room for a renewed same sex marriage push.

When legislation for a plebiscite failed to pass Parliament in November, supporters of same-sex marriage saw their chance to push for a free vote.

In their view the plebiscite policy had been tried and failed, and it was time for a new approach.

It’s hard to imagine voters would be too surprised if the government changed its policy because, in the view of many, breaking election promises is what politicians do best.

What distinguishes the latest effort to legalise same-sex marriage is that it clearly has the buy-in of Liberals who sit around the Cabinet table.

Pre-empting this week’s ambush, some electorally savvy conservatives even entered into negotiations with proponents of same-sex marriage in an effort to broker a deal.

They know the prospects for a successful parliamentary vote with religious protections is closer than ever and the issue isn’t going away.