Annika Smethurst: Series of unfortunate events has been bad news for PM

The political landscape can be derailed in the blink of an eye by the most unpredictable of events — as the Coalition has discovered to its cost this year, writes Annika Smethurst.

• PM blames Labor for ‘grubby’ smear campaign
• Scott Morrison primed for poll battle

Former British PM Harold Macmillan was once asked what he feared most about his job. “Events, dear boy, events,” was his now famous reply.

It’s a concept Scott Morrison will relate to.

Governments can try to sell their message but the political landscape can be derailed in the blink of an eye by the most unpredictable of events.

Going back to the beginning of 2018, the federal government was on the front foot. Labor had limped through summer after the resignation of Sam Dastyari over his ties to a Chinese donor. At the opening of the parliamentary year, Labor was ahead 52 per cent to the Coalition’s 48 per cent but Malcolm Turnbull had experienced a four-point boost over summer, and was leading Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister.

Sam Dastyari resigned over his ties to a Chinese donor. Picture: James Croucher

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. Picture: AAP

The events that followed — the Barnaby Joyce scandal, a leadership spill, by-election losses, the resignation of Julia Banks and the Andrew Broad sugar baby saga — have put the government in an unenviable position.

If the events of 2018 had played out differently, the federal government would be using this summer to prepare for an election.

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Malcolm Turnbull had planned to let his troops enjoy the Christmas break before announcing a March poll after Australia Day.

The Liberal Party’s coffers would have been full, or comparatively so, because money wouldn’t have been spent on a NSW state campaign.

How different it could have been.

Media coverage of Barnaby Joyce’s affair with former staffer Vikki Campion caught the Coalition by surprise. Picture: Channel 7

Instead Scott Morrison will need to wish for stability and discipline. He will need to avoid the “events” that dogged the government in recent months, most of which have been self-inflicted.

One of the biggest hurdles the government will have before the May election will come in 44 days when parliament resumes.

In February, the government will have little choice but face a vote on a refugee bill — moved by independent MP Kerryn Phelps — to evacuate refugees from offshore detention on medical advice. With Labor’s support, the government will lose that vote on the floor of parliament.

It will be the first time a government has lost a substantive vote in 90 years.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison will be hoping 2019 heralds a new era of stability and discipline. Picture: AAP

Labor also needs a simple majority on the floor of parliament to refer Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton to the High Court.

Mr Morrison will also be asked what he knew about the sugar baby texts involving Mr Broad. The Coalition had attempted to end the political year with strong economic numbers, but big announcements, including the surplus, were overshadowed by disastrous events.

With their fate and future employment on the line, the government has two options: unite and fight, or let self-interest win.

In December, Mr Morrison told his troops to prepare for “full engagement with the enemy”. But the bonding mechanism that unites Liberals — being anti-Labor — hasn’t proven to be a strong enough force to keep its members together.

Just when you think it can’t get any worse, it seems to. Again and again.