Annika Smethurst: How PM can overcome delayed response to bushfires
It would be wrong to approach opinion polls with anything other than the deepest degree of scepticism so maybe Scott Morrison can overcome the latest opinion poll which put Labor ahead for the first time since the federal election, Annika Smethurst writes.
Opinion
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After a string of wildly inaccurate predictions, it would be wrong to approach opinion polls with anything other than the deepest degree of scepticism.
Brexit, Trump’s victory and our own 2018 federal election should have taught us that public opinion is illusive.
If that’s the case, Scott Morrison and his Coalition colleagues have nothing to worry about after the latest opinion poll put Labor ahead for the first time since the federal election.
According to the poll, the Coalition’s primary vote has dropped two points to 40 per cent, while Labor’s has increased since early December. It’s all very interesting but most certainly irrelevant with two years to polling day.
But the same poll saw the Prime Minster cop a massive hit to his own personal approval which tumbled from 45 to 37 per cent, while Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s rating leapt from 40 to 46 per cent.
Polls may not be perfect, but Coalition MPs know they are still the best way of measuring bigger trends about what the public thinks.
They also know that the latest result cannot be totally disregarded. If we are to take anything from the latest poll, it appears the Prime Minister has been hurt by his ill-timed holiday and delayed response to the bushfires crisis and his team knows it.
If he wants to win the next election, the bushfire crisis cannot be a turning point in his relationship with the Australian people as it was for Tony Abbott when he made the decision to bring back the royal honours system, from which he never really recovered.
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Morrison’s troubling summer has also boosted Labor morale at a very crucial time.
Seizing on the government’s weakened position, Albanese has now called on two embattled ministers — Bridget McKenzie and Angus Taylor — to resign, giving us a taste of things to come.
With parliament due to return in a little over a fortnight, Labor strategists are planning to ramp up their attacks on McKenzie for the sports grant scandal and Taylor’s use of doctored documents which is being investigated by the AFP.
McKenzie may be a member of the National Party but her incompetence fuels the perception the entire government is not being upfront.
Government insiders believe Taylor’s days on the frontbench may also be numbered if the AFP doesn’t wrap up its probe soon.
Before Christmas, Liberal MPs were quick to compare Morrison to former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, who they claim would have cut Taylor adrift — as he had done with other ministers who found themselves in a spot of bother.
They argued that Morrison has shown unwavering loyalty to Taylor which he would maintain.
But Morrison is politically ruthless, and won’t want another scandal to engulf him after his disastrous summer.