Anna Caldwell: Even the best track record can be derailed
The threat of a rail strike proved how even the most competent governments can be thrown off course, writes Anna Caldwell.
Opinion
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JUST how easily things can go off the rails.
Today was going to be the day that Sydney ground to a halt — crippled by a jumped-up union boss relying on a dud group text to justify a mass rail strike.
Without the intervention of the Fair Work Commission and a compelling legal argument mounted by the state government’s lawyers, the city would have been bleeding dollars today as vital workers either sat at home or were locked in traffic congestion.
Yet we can be clear on this: if that rail strike had gone ahead, it wouldn’t matter that union boss Alex Claassens was out of line to prematurely throw his toys out of the cot to the detriment of NSW.
Right or wrong, a full strike would have been political poison for Premier Gladys Berejiklian.
And so there’s the rub — that bullet Sydney dodged in avoiding the rail strike wasn’t just about today.
The spectre of that strike was in fact a warning shot for the state government about the year that lies ahead. It’s a simple message; even when things are going well, something can kick you in the guts with the ferocity of a train strike in a January news cycle. Ouch.
This is a government in its seventh year, riding high in a sparkling economy with a solid message to sell.
These are hard-fought conditions straight out of any political fairytale playbook and the government is right to be proud of them.
A new Commsec report out today identifies NSW as Australia’s best performing economy. Again.
The report puts the state in first place in five of the eight categories Commsec measures: construction, unemployment, retail trade, dwelling starts and equipment investment.
Berejiklian in particular is right to feel that she’s significantly played a part in creating these conditions as transport minister and treasurer long before she got the top job.
The Commsec reports quantify the fact that NSW now is a world away from its position in the dying years of Labor, when the state languished at the back of the pack in 2011.
Berejiklian and Co are presiding over low unemployment, building things, creating jobs and they’ve got enough money in the bank to throw around some sweeteners and make sure levers are at work to ease cost of living pressures.
It’s a recipe state governments across the country strive for but lack the financial means, vision or length of time in office to implement.
There’s no doubt that we, in NSW, are currently on a pretty good wicket.
But the thing about being on a good wicket is that you get used to it. You take it for granted.
This notion means that while the government might perhaps deserve to be rewarded for the state’s strong economy come polling time, it can’t count on it.
I’ve discussed this idea before with Treasurer Dominic Perrottet.
He’s put out one of the strongest Budgets the state has seen in a long time, but is entirely cognisant of the fact the people of NSW have come to expect A-grade economic conditions.
Thus, the pressure is on Perrottet to remind voters these economic circumstances in NSW are not normal — and to find a way of doing that without sounding like he’s telling them they have it easy. Talk about walking a tightrope.
Because when train drivers are threatening to strike, no one feels like anyone in the state has it easy.
Thoughts swirl about things such as how hard it is to make a living and how hard it is to get to work. And these are the types of thoughts that can dog a government at the polling booth — regardless of how good things are.
In fact, reminders that voters don’t feel like they have it easy just keep popping up.
They were there when Labor got so much traction in opposing a $2 billion-plus spend on stadiums — voters asked why that money wasn’t being spent on schools and hospitals.
They were there when the government lost the Orange by-election to the Shooters Party in November 2016.
And they were there in December when Deputy Premier John Barilaro was nervous enough about voter discontent that he went def-con on his own mini thought bubble, publicly declaring Malcolm Turnbull should quit.
We live in an era where the politics of disruption is king.
The international trend towards voters becoming comfortable with — or even desiring — an outsider of course seeps into Australian borders. Experience and runs on the board have been, in recent years, a declining currency.
And so while the government should and will keep working away at the things that matter, such as the economy, cost of living and its building program — ministers know they can’t be complacent.
Berejiklian has rightly been praised for her handling of the rail strike. She stared the unions down. While some expected her to use her last-minute intervention to appease or make concessions, she fiercely stood her ground.
It was a powerful don’t-try-it-on message to other unions hoping they could use the months ahead to rattle a government with one eye on a March 2019 election date. It looks, for now, to be a bullet dodged.
But don’t be mistaken — the lesson is that the year ahead threatens to be filled with looming bullets just like this.