Andrew Clennell: Pauline Hanson’s shadow looms over poll

IT is two years and one month to the next state election and already the talk around Macquarie Street is the influence of One Nation, says Andrew Clennell.

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PAULINE Hanson looms large over the state parliament. There was no clearer sign of this last week than when the ­opposition’s member for Macquarie Fields, Anoulack Chanthi­vong, asked Gladys Berejiklian in Question Time to “rule out any Liberal Party preference deals with One Nation at the next state election”.

Premier Berejiklian replied: “I say to the member for Macquarie Fields, as I say to all members of this House: I share his interest in ensuring that we have tolerance for all members of our community. I have based my life in public office on that point.

“What I will be doing at the next election is ensuring that people vote one for the Liberals-Nationals.”

So the Premier declined to rule out a deal.

Basically Labor are really concerned about a Liberal-One Nation preferences deal.

The belief is the One Nation vote is in double figures and could be as high as 20 in some areas. The party has ­become more “mainstream” and is gelling with white men aged over 50 in particular.

They know that One Nation can lower their primary vote in blue-collar, mortgage-belt seats and keep them out of office.

And through federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and a 2001 national conference resolution, they are also committed to never doing a deal with One Nation.

So the Liberals have a golden opening.

Basically the two parties One Nation are set to hurt the most at the 2019 state election are the Nationals and Labor — in that order.

But there are other wider implications at the state level for the rise of One Nation.

Consider this. Gladys Berejiklian came to power saying she would do something about housing affordability.

A month in we are none the wiser as to what the Premier is going to do about this — but she has, Barry O’Farrell-style, ordered a review by former Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens.

But even the Premier ­acknowledges that immigration from other states and overseas has impacted on house prices.

And where does the One Nation anti-immigrant argument cut in the most at the moment in Sydney and ­surrounds?

Around house prices.

Putting up the “Sydney full” sign, as I have written before, would be a crude and wrong tactic, but it could play well for the opportunist Labor leader Luke Foley.

One Nation can lower their primary vote in blue-collar, mortgage-belt seats and keep them out of office.

It is two years and one month to the next state election and already the talk around Macquarie Street is the influence of One Nation and fear of a minority government involving either that party and the Coalition or Labor and the Greens.

That is because both Labor and the Nationals are basically heading for the ­toilet when they start to consider how One Nation can eat into their vote.

The belief is the One Nation vote is in double figures and could be as high as 20 in some areas. The party has ­become more “mainstream” and is gelling with white men aged over 50 in particular.

There are eight seats the Nationals are concerned about losing based on polling, I hear. That’s enough to see the Coalition driven into minority government. Lismore, Tweed, Upper Hunter, Monaro (all with margins under 4 per cent could go to Labor, the Greens and the Shooters between them), Myall Lakes (with a margin of 8.7 per cent among fears it could be lost to One Nation), Bathurst (former Labor seat could go to Labor, One ­Nation or the Shooters).

Then there is Tamworth (with the threat of an independent) and Port Macquarie (facing the threat of former independent Peter Besseling running). The Nationals hope to win back ­Orange from the Shooters but, nevertheless, to lose all those seats is enough to ­ensure the Libs losing just one or two of Seven Hills, Goulburn, Mulgoa, Coogee and Holsworthy sees them out on their ears.

Mark Coultan, the former journalist who is Ms Berejiklian’s “head of strategy”, caused derision and consternation when he told a recent Coalition party room meeting that One Nation was a federal party and would not cause major problems at the state election, as members could just argue that One Nation could not build them a hospital. Hopefully her team gets a bit more savvy.

They reckon the Premier has plans to cut so many ribbons on projects next year that she will get RSI.

That may help in Sydney but it is not going to help the Nationals’ vote in the towns. As it stands now, barring a Palmer party style implosion, or that which afflicted One Nation at the turn of the century, One Nation could cost the Coalition or Labor office or even end up a minority government partner — with or without the Shooters — to enable the Coalition to retain office after 2019. Imagine that wild ride.

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