Willoughby by-election result to come down to postal votes

Doubt has been cast over whether the Liberal Party will retain Gladys Berejiklian’s old seat. Here’s how the result will be decided.

Doubt has been cast over whether the Liberal Party will retain former premier Gladys Berejiklian’s old seat, with the result now set to come down to postal votes.

Losing the blue-ribbon North Shore seat held by Ms Berejiklian on a margin of 21 per cent would be a significant blow to the Perrottet government.

By late Tuesday night, Liberal candidate Tim James was ahead of independent Larissa Penn with a margin of just 2.8 per cent.

The swing against the Liberal party has blown out to around 19 per cent since Saturday night, with some projections predicting the two-party preferred result would be 52 per cent to Mr James against Ms Penn’s 48 per cent.

Premier Dominic Perrottet with candidate Tim James who remains “quietly confident”. Picture: Matrix

Independent candidate Larissa Penn pictured. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

But more than 30 per cent of the electorate returned postal votes, which are yet to be counted.

Postal votes have traditionally favoured the Coalition, but for the first time, postal voting packs were sent to all electors voting in Super Saturday’s four by-elections. Election observers have speculated that postal votes for last Saturday’s polls may buck that historical trend.

The Liberal party suffered an 18 per cent swing against it on Saturday night which has since increased to around 19 per cent.

Mr James said he was “watching the count with interest” but remained “quietly confident” in retaining the seat for the government.

He expected postal votes and pre-poll votes yet to be counted would favour the Liberal party.

On Sunday, Premier Dominic Perrottet said the huge swing against his party’s candidate was a “tough day in the office” but said he would have been happy if Mr James won by just “one vote”.

Before the by-election, senior left-faction Liberals had expressed their concerns that Mr James – from the party’s right faction – may be deemed too conservative for the electorate.

Ms Penn had campaigned heavily against two tunnel roads – the Northern Beaches Link and the Western Harbour Tunnel. Mr Perrottet on Sunday acknowledged his government needed to do more to engage with community concerns about major infrastructure projects to win its support.

The final result may not be known until next month.