Why are these Sydney suburb populations shrinking?

The population of suburbs from Mt Druitt to Mosman are bleeding numbers, with many local resident numbers dropping since the pandemic. See if your suburb grew or shrunk.

These are the mysteriously shrinking suburbs of Sydney, where the local populations have dropped since the pandemic.

They include Mt Druitt, Mosman, Cherrybrook, Forestville and Kings Langley but some of our most well-known suburbs have thinned out as people head for Queensland, the coast or the city’s outer edge.

Demographers and planning experts believe a combination of skyrocketing property prices, working from home, Baby Boomers cashing in on the family home and a desire for more backyard space has driven the drop.

The Mt Druitt-Whalan zone lost 176 people in the 2019-20 financial year, the highest in NSW and almost 1 per cent of its population.

The area has had minimal redevelopment and an ageing population, with many younger people moving out of the suburb to buy their first home.

Mosman, Neutral Bay and Kirribilli had similar losses, according to the ABS.

Dr Kim Johnstone is an associate director and demographer at planning consultancy Astrolabe Group.

Demographer Dr Kim Johnstone said many of these suburbs have people in their 20s and 30s who are willing to move to find something more affordable or better for work or study.

“One of the big differences is that these departures are not offset by any population gains from overseas migration, which you might have seen previously,” the Astrolabe Group associate director said.

“The data captures the first part of the pandemic. And so what we’re expecting is that when the next lot of data comes out that we’ll see even greater impact.

“In the longer term, we will expect to see overseas migration return and that could have an inflationary effect on house prices again.”

Sydney house prices have risen by 75 per cent in the past decade, according to CoreLogic.

The median house value in Sydney is around $500,000 more than what it is in Brisbane.

John and Michelle Brockhill are selling their Cherrybrook home. Picture: David Swift

John Brockhill and his wife Michelle are selling their large family home in Cherrybrook to be closer to grandchildren on the north coast.

“We brought forward the sale of our Holly Rd home to take advantage of the market,” Mr Brockhill, who is selling this month through Greg Nicolson at Louis Carr real estate, said.

“The property we are looking at up north is about $800,000 and is next to the beach.”

Mr Nicolson said last year 70 per cent of Cherrybrook buyers were from northwest Sydney, compared to 30 per cent this year.

“This tells us that many young people are moving away from city apartments and looking for more space,” he said.

While many apartment-heavy and established areas of Sydney saw population drops, newly developed suburbs such as Riverstone-Marsden Park and Cobbitty-Leppington have experienced a 25 per cent increase in their populations.

Rouse Hill, Ingleburn and Mt Annan also gained more than 800 citizens each — showing growth has stayed strong on the city’s fringes while slowing in middle ring areas that are about 10-25km from the Sydney CBD.

The desire for a backyard has increased since COVID. Picture: Gaye Gerard

“For all the talk of people moving to the regions, what we’re seeing in this latest data release from the ABS is a shift away from apartments to the suburbs — driven by affordability, increased workplace flexibility and likely the desire to have a little more space in lockdown — instead of tree-changers, it’s backyard-changers,” Gabriel Metcalf, CEO of the Committee for Sydney, said.

“What this means is we need to invest in making every local suburb in Sydney a great place — so people can walk to shops, get to good local parks and not have to get in the car for a long drive just to access their daily needs.”

Four of the top-50 growing suburbs in the past financial year were on the Central Coast.

CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless is predicting further growth in the population centres just outside Sydney.

“If you don’t have to go to the office every day, then that becomes less of an issue for moving to places like the Central Coast or the Blue Mountains or Wollongong or even a little bit further afield,” he said.

But not everyone wants to move.

Mosman woman Louise Magnifico with her son Max. Working from home more has given her the option of picking him up from school.

Mosman woman Louise Magnifico and her seven-year-old son Max have decided to stay where they are, despite her employer giving her the option to work more flexibly.

The single mum said working from home more has given her even more time with Max and upped her productivity.

“While I know some younger generations have moved from Mosman recently, here we are close to family and the lifestyle is great,” she said.