Sydney to Hobart yacht race weather latest has super fast start before big change, record in balance

It will be super fast and super fun before a big change potentially rains on the parade of the fleet - and a new race record - in the 79th Sydney to Hobart yacht race. Latest weather news.

LawConnect and Andoo Comanche near the finish line of the 2023 Sydney to Hobart. Picture: AFP Rolex/ Andrea Francolini

A super fast, super fun sleigh ride down the NSW coast is on the cards for the 79th Sydney to Hobart fleet before a big change rains on the parade of the 100 strong fleet racing the Australian classic - and a new race record.

A long range forecast for the race has the fleet surfing down the NSW coast in gorgeous - but still potentially dangerous - strong nor’easterlies on Boxing Day after they clear Sydney Harbour following the firing of the 1pm starting canon.

The ultra-fast downwind conditions will transform the NSW coast into a nautical speedway as the fleet frontrunners LawConnect and Master Lock Comanche hit and surpass recording breaking pace.

But the timing of the change - still to be determined more than a week out from the start but destined to bring drama to the event - will be crucial to the chances of the supermaxis setting a new fastest time.

Top yachting meteorologist Roger Badham said right now he believes the record is safe but it won’t take much for it to be back on the menu.

“It will be close,’’ he said. “We are still just a bit too far out.’’

Yachts will need to make hay early with a front tipped to hit the fleet the second day of the race.

“There will be some major changes to the forecast still but it does look like a fast 12-24 hours,’’ said yachting meteorologist Roger Badham.

The earlier the change comes in the second day at sea the less likely it will be that a new race record is set.

“There is time enough to have a complete rethink but the chances of that are diminishing every day.

“I’d still say no to a race record just now but its interesting. It could still happen.’’

Comanche at the start of the last race. She will relish the early forecast for the 2024 race. Picture: Richard Dobson

There is still uncertainly about the wind strength and direction for the 1pm start on Boxing Day - a building nor’easterly or a light easterly.

There is also disparity between weather models on the timing of the change on day two.

“There is potential for them to get 24 hours of running but it will all be about if the change comes in the morning or afternoon of the 27th.’’

The westerly change will pack winds strong enough to cause trouble for the fleet in Bass Strait.

“A 20-30 knots westerly in Bass Strait can still cause equipment damage and break boats,’’ Badham said.

Matt Allen and James Mayo’s Master Lock Comanche established set a new race record back in 2017 under former owner Jim Cooney when the yacht was known as LDV Comanche of one day nine hours, 15 minutes and 24 seconds.

This is a strong record and will take some beating - and more surfing than bashing.

Badham said ther were no early signs of anything too nasty in this years race but the majority of the fleet were in for a tough time at some stage.

While sailors will thrive in the high-speed racing down the coast on day one, the flip side for spectators is the yachts will not hoist their giant and colourful spinnakers in the harbour before they race out through The Heads and turn right for the 628nm voyage to Hobart.

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