Sydney to Hobart race weather forecast updates: Blue Planet’s horror night in grim conditions
One of the late arrivals in this year’s Sydney to Hobart has opened up on the shocking conditions, including being repeatedly washed overboard and having all onboard electronics destroyed.
NSW
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Sydney to Hobart late arrivals have given an insight into the horrendous conditions at sea later in the Sydney to Hobart - including one crew being washed overboard repeatedly.
Two-handed Blue Planet skipper Chris O’Neill spoke of biting cold, rough seas and wild winds the fourth night of the race on his arrival in Hobart on Sunday.
“It was just relentless, just extraordinarily tiring,” he said.
“I’m pretty sure I’ve never been so cold in my life as I was in the last 24 hours of the race.
“I had every scrap of clothing I could find and I was still freezing.’’
O’Neill said he and co-skipper Michael Johnstone were washed overboard repeatedly in the rough and tumble conditions.
“Most of the waves were around five metres but we got the odd nasty wave,’’ he said.
“At least four times we were washed overboard off the stern, just held by our harnesses. We dragged ourselves back on board.”
Adding to the drama was the fact Blue Planet’s electronic system went down.
“We lost all of our electronics,” O’Neill said.
“We had to navigate across Storm Bay and up the Derwent with a compass. It was a pretty black night, pretty scary.”
SYDNEY TO HOBART MINNOW TO SEE IN NEW YEAR AT SEA
Skipper Bob Williams always reckoned it was going to be an outside change at best that he and Sylph crewmate Chris Warren and Oli the cat would be finished the Sydney to Hobart by New Year’s Eve.
And he was dead right.
Now he plans to ring in the New Year at sea with a tin of soda water and perhaps some milk for Oli, the first cat to do the Sydney to Hobart.
“With New Year’s Eve a matter of hours away but Hobart Town still 246 nautical miles ahead of us, we will be celebrating the beginning of 2024 on the high seas with a can of soda water,’’ Williams said.
“When we started the race the weather forecast gave us little hope for Sylph reaching the finish line in time for New Year’s Eve celebrations.
“But as tis said ‘hope springs eternal’ and the idea of making it in time remained with us for the first few days but certainly no longer.
“My current best guess at an ETA is sometime on the third of January.’’
Late Sunday the forecast computer generated ETA for Williams was actually January 6.
Even a January 3 arrival will be between five to six days longer than it took LawConnect to beat Andoo Comanche by 51 seconds for the line honours in the 2023 Sydney to Hobart.
Then NSW yacht Enigma was late on Sunday expected into Hobart on New Year’s Day, the Queensland boat Silver Fern on January 2 and the two-hander Allegresse from New Zealand on January 4.
The slow progress of the tailenders is due to the torrid conditions at sea for the smaller and slower boats who have had to contend with days of upwind sailing while crews on the bigger boats in Hobart partied.
For the first time in the race there were no new retirements with the last yacht to do so, the two-handed Philosophy, motoring towards Hobart.
Some of Sunday’s arrivals in Hobart included Blue Planet, Solera, the two-hander Verite, Lenny and Ciao Bella.
Jessica Watson on Azzurro was expected to make it for the celebrations as was Vanessa Dudley on Tilting with Windmills, and only the third woman to compete in 25 Sydney to Hobart races.
DECEMBER 30: ‘Brutal’: Sting in the tail for Sydney Hobart two-handers
When exhausted two-handed sailor Rupert Henry finally arrived at the end of a drama-packed Sydney to Hobart after a “harrowing and brutal” final night at sea he ate, talked with friends and went to bed.
When he woke on Saturday, he and Mistral crewmate Jack Boutell had the overall victory in the two-handed class sewn up for the second year running while the Tasmania yacht Alive had her overall race win confirmed in a dockside ceremony.
“There’s point stressing. Nothing I can do. I’m going home for a sleep,’’ Henry said after arriving at Constitutional Dock.
Henry and Boutell survived - and thrived - in a race where a lightning bolt hit the water beside them the first night, they were slammed by torrential rain and storms, suffered the pain of being caught in windless parking lots, had freezing conditions and then a wet and wild crossing of Storm Bay.
“We had a horrendous passage from Tasman Island with sustained winds over 30 knots, enormous seas, massive swells, pelting rain. Classic Storm Bay,’’ said Henry, who had five layers of clothing on to combat the frigid conditions at sea.
Also making the going tougher for the pair was the fact they lost satellite communication for most of the trip with Henry going “old school’’ and taking down entire positional reports on the radio by hand so he could keep an eye on his rivals.
The race last year took Henry three days and six hours. In 2023 he finished in three days 19 hours.
Duncan Hine’s Alive made it in two days and two hours to secure overall honours at the Tattersall Cup for the second time.
“We worked so hard all the day through that race. Everyone put in 100 per cent,’’ he said.
“You don’t always walk away feeling like you have done the best you could have personally but I don't think anyone would have hopped off the boat feeling they could have put more in.’’
Between midnight and midday on Saturday 20 yachts arrived in Hobart to join the 18 who made it to Tasmania on December 28 and 29.
Around another 30 were expected in by early Sunday morning.
Earlier in the day Helsal III retired front eh race with a navigator sporting broken ribs, sail damage and a broken halyard courtesy of the rough and tough conditions at sea.
The Tasmanian yacht originally diverted to Port Arthur to access damage before pulling the plug as winds hit 48 knots off the Tasmanian coast to become the 17th race retirement.
The Adrian Lewis skippered Sydney yacht Allegro has also diverted to Port Arthur to access unknown damage but has yet to officially retire.
DECEMBER 29 They were at sea an extra night, experienced some of the heaviest rain and worse conditions they have ever seen in a Sydney to Hobart but the only damage done to David Gotze’s yacht No Limit was the handle of a kettle snapping off.
No Limit finished an extraordinary 29 hours after LawConnect pipped Andoo Comanche for the line honours in the 2023 Sydney to Hobart, the first arrival on Friday afternoon.
“One night is great, two is OK, three, just no,’’ Gotze said after arriving into Hobart.
But at least the crew on the Victorian yacht are safely docked with less than 25 boats expected to be tied up in Hobart by daylight on Saturday.
Then it’s a mass arrival with around 35 more expected to sail across the finish line on the Derwent River throughout the day.
“It’s unrelenting,’’ said meteorologist Roger Badham of the continuing forecast of hard upwind sailing for the rest of the fleet – most of whom are now at least through Bass Strait and racing down the east coast of Tasmania.
Not Oli the cat on Sylph though, the oldest and slowest yacht in the fleet and in the northern part of the Strait late on Friday.
Skippers Bob Williams, Chris Warren and Oli still have almost two third of the 628nm race to sail with an estimated time of arrival of January 4.
Not too far ahead is the yacht Hansen Tasmania with the youngest competitor aboard, 18-year-old Matthew Townley, being given a baptism of fire in his first race to Hobart.
But at least their ETA is early on New Year’s Day with the potential for them to slip into Hobart a few hours earlier and in time for the dockside celebrations.
“Tonight is worse than last night,’’ Badham said late Friday.
“It goes quiet in the morning and then builds, gradually getting stronger and will peak with 20-35 knots on the nose off the east coast of Tasmania.
DECEMBER 28: Shattered, beating himself up and “pained’’ but his under a minute loss on the Sydney to Hobart, Andoo Comanche skipper John “Herman’’ Winning still has an extraordinary story to tell of being caught “inside of a tornado’’ at sea in the Sydney to Hobart.
Winners last year, Andoo Comanche finished second behind Christian Beck;'s LawConnect by just 51 seconds, overtaken in the final glide towards the finish line on Thursday morning.
“Everyone left their hearts out there,’’ Winning praise after a race which boasted a lot more than he had planned for.
He was also complimentary to his rivals for their success.
“I don’t like coming second. I don’t mind it sometimes, but certainly when you are the favourite it’s pretty painful,’’ he said.
“We were the favourite because we’ve got an amazing boat that should have won the race.
“We’ve got an amazing crew. I know I beat myself up around not being able to deliver a win for those guys and my sister Jamie is included in that.
“But the other guys (on LawConnect) sailed their butts out. They sailed out of their skin. They left nothing on the table.
“We should have beaten them had we sailed as well as I know we can. I think our boat was definitely the better boat, as Christian sort of said in the past.
“I say that with a bigger compliment to them that they didn’t just beat us, but they beat us with an underdog boat.”
Winning later described how the yacht had been sucker-punched by a micro cell of thunderstorms in Bass Strait which caused mayhem, wild winds, poor visibly, 360 degree spins and work overload for the navigators and tacticians.
“It wasn’t any radar, in any predictions we had,’’ he said.
“We got stuck in that for 10 hours and we couldn’t get out.
“We tried to get out, what is the inside of the tornado, just this tiny low pressure thunderstorm system that was there.
“And no matter where we went, it would just spin us around and we couldn’t get out of the centre of it.
“So we lost like 10 hours. I think other boats did as well because we could see them on our radar.’’
Winning said with the 100-footer now returning to his overseas owner he will concentrate on sailing his 18-foot skiff, working with the Australian women’s and youth America’s Cup teams and getting an Australian Cup campaign up and running in the next few years.
DECEMBER 27: It was a case of shock and awe the first night at sea in the Sydney to Hobart with thousands of lightning strikes, torrential downpours, squalls, hail and wild winds.
But for the second and third night is will simply be a survival of the strongest, fittest and crews with iron stomachs.
Mass retirements in the fleet are being tipped as the weather intensifies for the majority of the fleet already making slow progress to Hobart.
“The could easily be 30 retirements by tomorrow night,’’ predicted metrologist Roger Badham late on Wednesday.
“There’s far worse to come for them. It’s not a nice place to be, Bass Strait tomorrow (Thursday). It just gets increasingly bad all day.’’
“It’s not an easy path from the south coast of NSW to Hobart and the conditions don’t back off until late Saturday, Sunday.
“The smaller boats will get a hiding.’’
That’s from predicted 30 knot winds and seas that could reach four metres.
It’s boat breaking and nauseating conditions which will take their toll on a fleet already bedraggled from a wet and wild first night.
“I have never seem anything like it at sea,’’ said Antipodes sailor Geoff Cropley in a call off the yacht.
“It was amazing, and scary.
“There was so much lightning with cloud cover above and then a full moon.
“Then more lightning and torrential rain.
“It was some show.’’
A sodden LawConnect navigator Chris Lewis said they experienced a mixture of conditions at sea at the front of the fleet with Andoo Comanche.
“Everybody’s pretty pruny right now. As wet as can be,” Lewis said.
“We’ve had a little bit of everything. The wildest was literally 180-degree wind shifts. It’s been pretty wild.”
While the frontrunners are expected to arrive in Hobart on Thursday – potentially without any significant upwind sailing – more of the fleet will still be at sea plugging away.
On Wednesday there were mass reports of seasickness across the fleet, something race management had warned sailors about at the race briefing on Christmas Eve.
A number of yachts were forced to the sidelines because of crew sickness and fatigue, including Millenium Falcon.
So slow will the fleets progress be, Badham believes there will be numerous competitors still racing on New Year’s Eve if they haven’t already retired.
Late yesterday there were five yachts with an ETA in the New Year – Hansen Tasmania, She, Salt Lines, Sylph ands Silver Fern.
Incredibly the last two yachts had ETAs of January 6 and 5 based on their current progress.
One boat ready for that possibility will be Robert William’s two-hander Sylph, build in 1960 and the oldest yacht in the 2023 fleet.
Williams is well prepared for a New Year at sea and has tucked away a bottle of rum so he can toast it in with his cat Oli and crewmate Chris Warren.
Oli is believed to be the first cat to sail a Sydney to Hobart and his voyage has garnered international headlines pre-race.
Also prepared for the worse is round the world sailor Jessica Watson who believes she managed to conquer her sea sickness during her round the world voltage as a 16-year-old.
“But you never know when it will come back,’’ she said.
A fleet of 103 set sail on Boxing Day with three retirements the first afternoon and night.
By 4.30pm on Wednesday the list had blown out to 11 with more expected overnight and into the third day.
DECEMBER 26: A first night of rain squalls, erratic winds and lightning is ahead for the 103 yachts in the Sydney to Hobart before most “cop a hiding’ in Bass Strait – but not all.
This morning’s race forecast is still a work in progress but the fleet is tipped to encounter a stormy first night at sea in the 628nm miles to Hobart.
Yachts will be navigating their way through and around rain squalls, thunderstorm and lighting with the potential for hail to make the first night at sea even more wet and wild.
It will be a busy night for navigators and crews with countless sail changes on the cards and the race “like a game of chess’’ according to Scallywag skipper David Witt.
Meteorologist Roger Badham is still forecasting a fast race for the line honours contenders which include Andoo Comanche, Scallywag, LawConnect and Wild Thing 100 but less sure of a race record.
“One (weather) run overnight had Comanche only was only a couple of hours behind the record. But I think that’s a forlorn hope.’’
Badham said the entire fleet, minus the biggest and fastest – “can expect a hiding’’ a some stage.
‘The smaller boats cop a hiding in Bass Strait with 3m waves and its blowy (potentially 30 plus knots).
“The big boats won’t cop much. Everyone gets a hiding except the maxis.’’
EARLIER: It’s getting faster for the big boats and nastier for the slow boats and minnows in the Sydney to Hobart with a piece of history up for grabs by Andoo Comanche and the supermaxis.
The forecast for the race starting at 1pm on Boxing Day continues to evolve with the smallest and slowest yachts in the fleet expected to encounter a tough time at sea in the latter part of the race.
In contrast the big boats – including the 100-footers Andoo Comanche, Scallywag, LawConnect and Wild Thing – will have less time at sea in anything too uncomfortable and potentially a bonus present.
Top meteorologist Roger Badham said a favourite like defending champion Andoo Comanche is now in a position to claim not one victory in the race but potentially a second as well – and its not the race record.
The faster forecast, now boasting more nor’east and less on the nose for the frontrunners, could deliver both a line honours win and overall victory to someone in the big boat fleet.
“It’s getting better for the big boats and worse for the little ones,’’ Badham said.
“I think this is Comanche’s to lose. There’s more running and reaching now and it is just possible they could get the double.’’
But only minor chance to the forecast would put the likes of Scallywag, LawConnect and Wild Thing back in this race for victory and yachts including URM, Moneypenny, No Limit, Whisper back pressing for the overall honours.
There’s not as much good news for the minnows and slow boats.
“The small boats, the little guys get the s#%t kicked out of them in Bass Strait as the breeze goes sou’west Thursday and its near gale force, 30-35 knots,’’ Badham said.
“The smaller you are the greater the pain.’’
“It’s nasty. It won’t be a nice place Bass Strait. It’s not untoward but its not nice with 3m waves.’’
In contrast the biggest yachts may only encounter a couple of hours or so of tough upwind sailing.
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