YouGov poll predicts Chris Minns will defeat Dominic Perrottet at March state election

Labor is headed to a thumping victory over the Coalition at the March state election, with a new poll showing young voters are set to oust Premier Dominic Perrottet.

Labor is headed to a thumping victory over the Coalition at the March state election, with a new poll showing young voters are set to oust Premier Dominic Perrottet.

A YouGov poll for The Sunday Telegraph reveals NSW voters are on track to hand Opposition Leader Chris Minns a wider margin than that secured last year by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese over the unpopular Scott Morrison.

The Coalition’s bid for a historic fourth term is under growing pressure, with support for Mr Perrottet at just 44 per cent of voters to Labor’s 56 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. Former premier Gladys Berejiklian secured 52 per cent of the two-party preferred to Labor’s 48 per cent in March 2019.

The party’s primary vote has also flipped from the March 2019 poll, when the Coalition secured 41.6 per cent to Labor’s 33.3 per cent. Now it is 33 per cent to the Coalition and 39 per cent to Labor.

The YouGov poll also reveals slightly more support for minor parties — with 11 per cent of the primary vote to the Greens (up from 9.6 per cent in 2019) and 17 per cent to others (from 15.5 per cent).

In an indication of the challenges facing Mr Perrottet, the drift is far deeper than dissatisfaction over issues such as his recent Nazi uniform scandal, which 67 per cent of voters shrugged off as not impacting their opinion.

Premier Dominic Perrottet (left) and Labor leader Chris Minns will battle it out at the March state election.

Despite a bipartisan majority of voters backing Mr Perrottet’s gambling reforms — with 61 per cent supporting a cashless gaming card — this issue was among the lowest priorities across all groups polled.

And young voters’ concerns about cost of living and housing affordability, which 90 per cent of 18-34 year olds ranked as their biggest priorities, were also handing Labor a boost.

“Everyone looks like they’re worried about cost of living at the moment and we see clear partisan lines about who they trust with that issue,” said YouGov head of data science, Dr Shaun Ratcliff.

“But what’s interesting is, considering we know how an important an issue this is, Labor does have a slight edge on the Coalition with 30 per cent to 25 per cent trusting them on this issue.”

The YouGov poll shows a greater move to Labor than a Newspoll in The Australian in September which gave Labor 54 per cent of the two party preferred vote.

“It is not heading in the right direction for the Coalition, considering we are two months out from the election,” said Dr Ratcliff.

“I think the issue here is we have a government that’s more than a decade old now.

“Every time you get elected during the next election when it becomes a bit harder, you’ve been in office a bit longer. And then obviously the government lost a number of ministers this term and the (former) premier (Gladys Berejiklian).

“So it doesn’t mean it’s ­impossible for them to win ­­re-election. It never is. But every time you seek re-election it is a little bit harder than the last one.”

Got a news tip? Email [e-mail]