NSW Election 2023: Teals barely make a dent in Liberal seats; One Nation barely registers
After weeks of talk of One Nation and the Teals taking votes from both major parties, by 10pm on Saturday it was clear there would be no electoral wave washing them into the NSW lower house.
State Election
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After weeks of talk of One Nation and the Teals taking votes from both major parties, by 10pm on Saturday it was clear there would be no electoral wave washing them into the NSW lower house.
By then it was clear that Teal hopes of taking North Shore, Manly and Lane Cove from the Liberal Party all appeared to have come to nothing, with the only seat where a Teal looked likely to salute was Pittwater, where Jacqui Scruby was slightly ahead against Liberal Rory Amon.
The only certain “Teal” victory — even though she rejects the term — was in the Southern Highlands seat of Wollondilly, where Judy Hannan, who Gladys Berejiklian once tried to recruit to the Liberal Party, was set to narrowly defeat Liberal Nathaniel Smith.
Elsewhere, Independent Alex Greenwich easily retained his seat of Sydney with a swing of 6.9 per cent.
In Wakehurst the non-Teal independent Michael Regan appeared to have thwarted Toby Williams’ dream of replacing Brad Hazzard as a Liberal MP, while in Willoughby, despite being behind to another non-Teal independent in Larissa Penn, the Liberals were confident their candidate Tim James would get over the line.
A Teal campaigner said Lane Cove was “very tight”, saying “as expected, optional preferential voting was our greatest challenge”.
Another claimed the group was “still in the hunt in Manly”, although the Liberals were hopeful they would hang on.
If the Liberals manage to hang on in the other seats targeted by the Greens it would be seen as a vindication of Treasurer Matt Kean’s aggressive positioning on the issue of climate change.
Meanwhile, in the non-Teal parts of NSW, Mark Latham’s decision to aggressively target Matt Kean might have dragged votes away from the Liberal Party but, as a strategy to boost One Nation’s vote, it appeared to have flopped.
With almost a third of votes counted across the state at time of writing, the former federal Labor leader’s new party was sitting on only 1.6 per cent.
Mr Latham had attacked Mr Kean mercilessly across the final weeks of campaign, rather than Premier Dom Perrottet.
On Mr Latham’s Instagram last week, his message to voters “sick of the same old parties” was illustrated by pictures of Labor leader Chris Minns and the Treasurer — not Mr Perrottet.
Ahead of the vote, Liberal figures had feared — and Labor figures hoped — that One Nation’s strategy of encouraging its supporters to only vote for one candidate would deprive the Liberals of preferences.
How badly its tactic of campaigning against the Treasurer may have damaged the Liberal Party’s brand across the state was unclear.
But, on the results available on Saturday night, it appeared that if it had had any impact, it was only to drive voters into the arms of the Labor Party.
A senior federal Liberal said there was no doubt Mr Kean was toxic with some voters in regional areas.
“You were hearing on the booths today and others were telling me the same,” he said.
“One of the biggest problems we’ve had in these regions is just getting Liberals out on booths — we’ve got Liberals who are campaigning for One Nation.”
But Liberal Senator Andrew Bragg said the stronger than expected support for the defeated state government in areas covered by federal seats that had fallen to the Teals last May sent the party a clear message.
“It shows we have to keep away from the crazy culture war issues,” he said. “We can’t take marginal issues into the political mainstream. It shows we have an ambitious climate emissions reduction plan — we just have to — in order to win those seats.”
A senior Labor official conceded that Mr Kean’s strategy had cauterised the Liberal Party’s bleeding on its Left flank.
“The NSW Liberals tried to offer something to voters who felt the federal Coalition gave them nothing, and the result seems to be a moderation of the swing against,” he said.
But he said that if the NSW Liberals had lost votes to the Teals, One Nation and Labor it would suggest that “the Matt Kean political model isn’t any better than the Scott Morrison approach”.
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