2023 NSW election: Labor at risk of minority government

Looking in danger of losing her seat on Saturday, a Liberal MP has stormed to the lead and is edging closer to retaining her seat, though the battle is far from over.

Newly minted Premier Chris Minns is likely to rule in minority government with several key seats slowly starting to sway to the Liberals.

Despite wiping out strong Coalition margins across NSW, the Liberal party could hold onto key electorates including Terrigal, Miranda and Holsworthy.

On Tuesday, the dream of converting the last Liberal stronghold on the Central Coast was slipping away from Mr Minns with MP Adam Crouch stretching out his lead against Labor’s Sam Boughton by 240 votes.

After pundits initially called Terrigal for Labor on Saturday night, a slow vote count had Mr Crouch leading by 87 votes on Monday.

“These things are a bit of rollercoast so the last briefing I got was that it will be hard for Labor to get that seat,” Premier Minns said on Tuesday.

Another seat which was previously on a knife‘s edge may now head to the Liberals with former Minister Eleni Petinos ahead by 905 votes in Miranda.

Polling guru Anthony Green said he expected Labor to finish with 45 or 46 seats — short of the 47 needed for a majority.

“My reliable sources tell me the Liberal Party will retain Pittwater and Gareth Ward will retain Kiama. If true Labor maximum seats is 46,” he said.

“Looking like Labor will finish with 45 or 46 seats.”

Despite Mr Green’s predictions, the Premier remained confident that Labor could secure Kiama where independent Gareth Ward was ahead by 615 votes with almost 80 per cent counted.

“We are still very hopeful of Labor’s candidate being elected,” Mr Minns said.

Independents Alex Greenwich, Greg Piper and Joe McGirr have promised supply and confidence to the new government but Mr Minns said no deals had been done.

Independent Judy Hannan also claimed the Liberal stronghold of Wollondilly.

“We are either going to be one seat off or have a majority. We have had fruitful discussions with the crossbench … There hasn’t been (any deals),” he said.

“If we were in minority and minor parties on the cross bench were prepared to support Labor, we were happy to accept their support but we wouldn’t be doing any horse trading or any deals.”

Earlier in the day, Mr Minns and his interim leadership team were sworn in at Government House before he finalises his full cabinet next week.

“Counting is continuing in many key seats and we don’t know the final composition of the next parliament. But my team and I are ready to hit the ground running … and we can’t wait for those responsibilities of office,” he said.

After claiming Monaro, Labor was also optimistic about their chances in another regional seat — Goulburn where former Minister Wendy Tuckerman went head-to-head with Labor‘s Michael Pilbrow.

With almost 80 per cent of the votes counted on Tuesday, Ms Tuckerman had secured a 368 vote lead over her opponent.

First-time candidate Tina Ayyad also doubled her lead on Tuesday with the Liberals ahead of Labor by 526 votes.

From the city to the regions, these are the six seats all sides of politics are watching:

TERRIGAL

The dream of converting the last Liberal stronghold on the Central Coast to red is slipping away from Chris Minns with MP Adam Crouch stretching out his lead against Labor’s Sam Boughton by 240 votes.

After pundits initially called the seat for Labor on Saturday night, a slow vote count had Mr Crouch leading by 87 votes on Monday.

“These things are a bit of roller coast so the last briefing I got was that it will be hard for Labor to get that seat,” Premier Minns said on Tuesday.

It had initially appeared that Labor’s Sam Boughton - a University of Newcastle-educated physiotherapist - had snatched the seat from Mr Crouch, who has been the MP for Terrigal since 2015.

Terrigal State Liberal MP Adam Crouch is in danger of losing his seat. Picture: NewsLocal

But strong results from the count on Monday and Tuesday as well as a swing back towards Mr Crouch from postal votes means the seat is likely to stay in Mr Harris’s hands.

It means it’ll be the last stronghold for the Liberals on the Central Coast, which has turned red elsewhere at state and federal level.

MIRANDA

Former Fair Trading Minister Eleni Petinos is likely to win the battle to hold onto her seat with the Liberals ahead of Labor’s Simon Earle by 905 votes.

On Saturday night, Ms Petinos looked set to lose her seat but by Wednesday she was on track to win with 60 per cent of the votes counted.

With another 40 per cent to go -- the electorate remains too close to call.

Eleni Petinos has suffered a huge negative swing, but may retain the seat. Picture: AAP Image

The loss of Ms Petinos would have been disastrous for a Liberal party struggling with a dearth of women MPs.

HOLSWORTHY

First time candidate Tina Ayyad rolled sitting MP Melanie Gibbons for a shot at Holsworthy and it seemed to have worked in the Liberal party’s favour -- just barely.

Ms Ayyad was ahead by 526 voted on Tuesday afternoon but with 76 per cent of the votes counted, it was another seat where the Liberals could hold on.

A win in Holsworthy for Tina Ayyad (middle) could also cost Mr Minns a Labor majority government.

The new member will likely come in on a wafer-thin margin, largely resulting from the state-wide swing against the Liberals but also attributed by insiders to the changing and unpredictable face of western Sydney which has undergone massive population growth.

GOULBURN

After claiming Monaro, Labor was optimistic about their chances in another regional seat -- Goulburn where former minister Wendy Tuckerman went head-to-head with Labor’s Michael Pilbrow.

Labor is still in with a chance after Ms Tuckerman’s 310-vote lead on Monday rising slightly to 368 on Tuesday.

There are still about 30 per cent of the votes left to be counted so it could be anyone’s game.

Was Dominic Perrottet hitting the ground in Goulburn enough to save Wendy Tuckerman’s seat? Picture: NCA Newswire/Gaye Gerard

The pick-up of Goulburn would have been a boon for Labor as they tried to extend their reach in regional areas, with it more likely they will succeed in stealing Monaro, where Steve Whan - who has previously served as a minister in a Labor government - likely to knock off Nationals MP Nichole Overall.

Goulburn was the subject of a blitz by former Premier Dominic Perrottet in the final weeks of campaign, with Mr Perrottet visiting the town as well as several communities in the southern Highlands.

OATLEY

In Oatley, former Minister Mark Coure stretched out his lead against Labor’s Ash Ambihaipahar by 910 votes with almost 80 per cent of the votes done.

Sources said it was likely Mr Coure will scrape through with postal votes yet to be counted -- a medium preferred by older Australians who would be familiar with the man who held the senior’s portfolio in the Perrottet cabinet.

Liberal MP for Oatley Mark Coure is also expected to hang onto his seat. Picture: Supplied

Labor have lamented poorer than expected results in key booths in areas like Riverwood, with a chance of a recount if the vote ends up right.Holding on to the seat will be a boon for the Liberals given their disastrous results elsewhere in Sydney, with Mr Coure likely to form a key part of an inexperienced Opposition front bench if he survives.

KIAMA

Premier Chris Minns was confident on Tuesday that his candidate Katelin McInerney would succeed in toppling Liberal-turned-independent Gareth Ward in Kiama.

But on Tuesday afternoon, Mr Ward was leading by 615 votes with almost 80 per cent counted.

“We are still very hopeful of Labor’s candidate being elected,” Mr Minns said on Tuesday.

Labor is putting up a strong fight for Gareth Ward’s seat in Kiama. Picture: Tim Hunter.

Mr Ward is facing historic sexual assault charges which he denies.

Liberal candidate and former Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons secured just 11.3 per cent of first round votes, in a disastrous result for the party.