Revealed: Bombshell NSW polling spells disaster for Coalition as party stares into the abyss
Shocking new polling shows the NSW Coalition is on track to lose 10 seats to Labor – results that could sound the death knell for Mark Speakman. Find out which MPs have their jobs on the line.
The Coalition is facing a bloodbath at the next state election while support for One Nation in the Upper House has surged, according to bombshell new polling that could sound the death knell for Mark Speakman.
The Coalition’s primary vote has slumped by 5.4 percentage points since 2023, with Labor now ahead 59-41 on a two-party preferred basis.
That represents a swing of 4.7 per cent to Labor since the last election.
The polling comes at a make or break moment for the Liberal Leader, whose future is set to be decided when parliament returns next month.
The research, from pollsters DemosAU and advisory firm Premier National, showed the Speakman Opposition with a primary vote of 30 per cent – down 5.4 points from the election, and four points from six months ago.
Labor’s support was at 37 per cent – stable since the election, and up four points from March.
The two-party preferred results indicate Labor picking up 10 seats from the Coalition.
Those in the firing line include Jordan Lane in Ryde, Tina Ayyad in Holsworthy, Mark Coure in Oatley, and Adam Crouch in Terrigal.
On these numbers, Goulburn MP Wendy Tuckerman, Drummoyne MP Stephanie Di Pasqua, Winston Hills MP Mark Taylor, and Miranda MP Eleni Petinos would also lose their jobs to Labor.
Labor would also win two seats from Nationals MPs: Tweed (held by Geoff Provest) and Upper Hunter (held by Dave Layzell).
The poll shows Labor ahead in all demographics except for voters aged 55 and over, where support was evenly split between Labor and the Coalition.
Just quarter of respondents listed Mr Speakman as their preferred Premier, compared to 44 per cent who preferred Premier Chris Minns.
Thirty-one per cent were undecided.
The results reinforce a view among some Liberals that Mr Speakman is failing to cut through with voters.
But the heir-apparent, Vaucluse MP Kellie Sloane, has ruled out challenging for the leadership, declaring Mr Speakman has her support.
Other potential leadership contenders include Wahroonga MP Alister Henskens and Manly’s James Griffin.
Liberals this week, not briefed on the latest polling, said MPs were in a “holding pattern” – with no consensus on how the Opposition can break its polling slump.
“The trajectory is all one way,” one said.
The DemosAU polling also revealed a surge for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation in the Upper House, up 9.1 points to 15 per cent.
The results show Labor picking up into the Coalition’s traditional support base, DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said.
“Labor is doing really well with men, people aged 35 - 54, homeowners and people with a
personal income over $125k a year.”
Mr Hasanakos said the increase in support for One Nation could hurt the Coalition, due to NSW’s optional preferential voting system.
PremierNational Partner and CEO Lachlan Crombie said the results show a “serious deterioration” in support for the Coalition.
Thirty-six per cent of voters labelled cost of living and inflation as the “biggest issue facing NSW,” followed by 25 per cent who listed housing affordability as their greatest concern.
The next most important issues were crime/public safety and immigration/overpopulation, nominated by eight per cent.
“Minns’ laser-like focus on housing is paying off, and this is evident in what the voters are
saying,” Mr Crombie said.
“The real challenge for the Opposition is that homeowners, higher-income earners and
voters aged 35 to 54 are now firmly behind the Minns Government.”
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