‘Politics of grievance’ on show as Chris Minns’ NSW Labor government slides in the polls

Both major parties in NSW politics will have lessons to learn from new polling. See who’s winning the popularity contest.

The Minns government’s popularity has copped a beating but the majority of voters have no opinion or no idea about the Liberal opposition led by Mark Speakman, according to new polling.

A statewide poll of almost 1,400 voters, conducted by Redbridge, shows the Coalition has clawed back ground on the Labor government since the election with voters now almost evenly split between the two.

Labor retains the slimmest of leads over the Coalition, ahead 50.5 to 49.5 on a two-party preferred basis.

Compared to the March election, Labor is down almost four percentage points, while the Coalition is up by almost three.

On a first-preference basis, however, Labor has dropped by less than two percentage points compared with the election (35 per cent, down from almost 37 per cent). The Coalition is up by just over four (40 per cent, up from just over 35 per cent).

Labor Premier of NSW Chris Minns is facing a downturn in the polls. Picture: NCA Newswire / Gaye Gerard

The Redbridge polling found that 14 per cent of voters would give their first preference to a party other than Labor, the Coalition, or the Greens. At the election almost 18 per cent voted for a minor party (excluding the Greens).

While the results will fire a warning shot at the Minns government, voters have delivered a wake up call for the Liberal Leader.

Voters aren’t rating NSW Liberal Leader Mark Speakman in Opposition. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Nikki Short

Premier Chris Minns remains popular: 40 per cent of voters surveyed thought the Labor government led by Mr Minns was doing a “good” or “very good” job, compared to 20 per cent who thought it was doing a “poor” or “very poor” job.

Asked to rate the performance of the Speakman-led Coalition, only 19 per cent of voters gave a “good” or “very good” rating. That was compared to 21 per cent who thought Mr Speakman was doing a “poor” or “very poor” job.

Worryingly for the Liberal Leader, 41 per cent of voters had no opinion either way, while 19 per cent were “not sure” about the Speakman Opposition’s performance.

Redbridge Director Tony Barry said the results reflect the cost of living crisis facing voters.

Labor’s biggest first-preference support base came from “provincial cities” (38 per cent) but dropped in the regions (32 per cent).

“Chris Minns is winning the popularity contest but he is losing the delivery and outcomes contest,” Mr Barry said.

He said the cost of living crisis is fuelling the “politics of grievance” and making life harder for incumbent governments.

(File image) Continuing cost of living stress has put the squeeze on the incumbent Minns government.

“The big risk for Chris Minns and Labor is that the politics of grievance unites and expands more fragmented constituencies against the government.”

The poll of 1,376 NSW voters was conducted in two waves, in February and May.

“The Chris Minns government has been laying down the foundational work needed to address some of the serious challenges facing NSW residents and their communities,” Redbridge director Kos Samaras said.

“How they execute the fix to these challenges will shape the next election in just under 3 years.”

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