Orange by-election: The day that triggered the siege of Troy
JULY 7 was the day this government created a huge self-inflicted wound and Troy Grant may have killed himself in political terms, writes Andrew Clennell.
NSW
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JULY 7 was the day this government created a huge self-inflicted wound and Troy Grant may have killed himself in political terms.
That day, the day Mike Baird announced a ban on the greyhound racing industry, coming on top of council amalgamations and all the rest of the nanny state moves of this government, is what appears to have lost this by-election, no matter which way you look at it.
Grant had the option to tell Baird the Nats would not wear the ban - or at the very least that he needed to take the matter to his party room first - and didn’t.
Like the good loyal former cop he was, he followed orders. So did the rest of the cabinet.
And now Grant appears to have lost a seat which has been with the Coalition since World War II.
The only thing between Troy Grant and being rolled is the fact that in the past when there was Nationals leadership speculation, every MP has wanted to be leader and so not enough votes could mobilise behind one candidate. But with the Orange by-election result so emphatic, it has united many party members - against Troy Grant.
This may be enough to see them fall in behind John Barilaro, particularly if it is part of a Barilaro-Blair ticket.
As one MP said to me yesterday, anyone with a 10 per cent margin in the Nationals or less is frightened now of losing their seat.
The Nationals perceive that they need a circuit-breaker and what better circuit breaker than removing the leader responsible for the mess. Yesterday Grant was doing his best to quell Barilaro’s ambitions, telling his colleagues that Barilaro had been one of the ministers to support the greyhound decision (Barilaro spoke in favour of it in the parliament on Grant’s behalf and later pushed for a reversal).
It is a messy business.
Grant became Barilaro’s daughter’s godfather just last month. Among those concerned yesterday was the Police Association with its president Scott Weber telling The Daily Telegraph that there had been seven police ministers in nine years and he wanted Grant to remain minister. Grant supporters are pointing the finger at Baird - saying it is often at war with the premier’s office to get some things done and that at the booths on Saturday, anger was mainly directed at Baird.
This week is the last week of parliament. It is known as the killing season for a reason.
Labor leader Luke Foley was worried that a loss in Wollongong might see him under similar pressure, but his candidate Paul Scully won 58-42 against Lord Mayor Gordon Bradbery on Saturday.
Instead, Foley has put Troy Grant’s job in jeopardy after Foley’s Labor did a deal with the Shooters on preferences.
Cynical it may be in the extreme but it worked.
The danger of course of leadership change if that it is a frying pan into the fire scenario. They will be swapping “one Troy” for another in terms of experience.
But that is a risk worth taking, according to many, after as disastrous a result as the government has copped in Orange.
Mike Baird overturned the greyhound racing ban to save his deputy and the stocks of the government.
But, the truth is, the moment that decision was announced he had already fed Grant to the wolves. Even if a leadership change does not happen on Tuesday, it feels like only a matter of time.
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