Orange by-election: NSW Nationals leader Troy Grant fell on his sword as he promised colleagues

TROY Grant promised senior colleagues last month that he would resign should he lose the Orange by-election and he has lived true to his word. Analysis by Andrew Clennell

• Nationals leader Troy Grant quits after Orange by-election disaster

TROY Grant promised senior colleagues last month that he would resign should he lose the Orange by-election and he has lived true to his word.

Grant considered fighting on, particularly with the seat still in the balance, and was defiant as recently as yesterday but it seems obvious he could see the momentum was shifting against him.

True to his word... Troy Grant in Orange at the weekend. Picture: Jonathan Ng

Even if Grant won tomorrow’s ballot against John Barilaro, it would have been by one or two votes and this would have been a shemozzle and left the Nationals in major upheaval.

The last figures I calculated had Barilaro ahead by about 12 votes to 10, in a deal which would see Niall Blair become deputy leader.

Those on the Grant camp saw it around 12-10 their way.

Grant has paid a fair price for a colossal mistake on greyhounds and the Orange by-election result.

John Barilaro.

Niall Blair.

Disastrous result... Grant with NSW Premier Mike Baird

It will now be up to likely next leader John Barilaro whether to keep Grant on in police - something the Police Association certainly wants - but one thing that is now expected is a domino-like reshuffle.

Mike Baird will now have to move quicker than he wanted on a ministerial overhaul. He wanted a reshuffle in January.

This could spell the end of Health Minister Jillian Skinner and even Education Minister Adrian Piccoli and Roads Minister Duncan Gay.

And from now on in, the Nationals will not be meekly following whatever Mike Baird wants - a potential problem for the reforming premier.