Orange by-election: Nationals confident of victory

THE National Party will win next week’s Orange by-election by “five or six points” — a 15 per cent swing against the government — Deputy Premier Troy Grant has declared to cabinet.

Nationals Leader Troy Grant. Picture: Richard Dobson

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THE National Party will win next week’s Orange by-election by “five or six points” — a 15 per cent swing against the government — Deputy Premier Troy Grant has declared to cabinet.

Mr Grant’s declaration, according to sources, came as he also told ministers that Labor’s vote was falling in the seat, a factor the government will hope to rub in the face of Labor leader Luke Foley.

Latest Labor polling had the Nationals at 39 per cent, the Shooters at 18 per cent and Labor at 19 per cent.

NSW Labor Leader Luke Foley was probably hoping for a better showing in Orange. Picture: Stephen Cooper

Nationals Leader Troy Grant. Picture: Richard Dobson

Such a result, if it occurred on polling day, would give Labor a lower primary vote than it managed at the 2015 state election when it won 23.5 per cent of the vote.

Such a low primary for Labor could also mean the Shooters finish second.

Mr Grant has been desperate to avert defeat in the seat. He told ministers the fight had been tough and thanked them for visiting.

Mr Grant’s office declined to comment on cabinet matters.

Sportsbet has the Nationals at $1.20 to win, compared with Labor at $4.50 and the Shooters at $11.

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To win by five or six points would mean a 55-56 versus 44-45 result, compared with the 71-29 result Andrew Gee managed at the last election — before he quit to run federally. The Nationals have been helped by Premier Mike Baird’s decision to overturn his ban on greyhound racing, which initial internal polling had as the number one issue in the seat.

The number of people who list that as the most important issue has now halved.

Labor and the Shooters have done their first preference deal in the race for the first lower house seat the Shooters have contested. Independent Scott Munro, who is expected to win 8-10 per cent of the vote, is also recommending the Shooters be preferenced ahead of the Nationals.

The Baird government has had mixed reactions to its repeal of its own greyhound ban. Picture: Mitch Bear

NSW Premier Mike Baird. Picture: Claudia Baxter

Independent Scott Munro in his butcher shop in Orange. Picture: Adam Yip / The Australian

But in state elections, voters are able to exhaust their vote rather than preference and the Nationals believe this can work in their favour.

In other November 12 by-elections, Labor is fighting to retain Wollongong — left vacant by the retirement of controversial MP Noreen Hay — from independent Lord Mayor Gordon Bradbery but expect to win, while in Canterbury the Labor upper house MP Sophie Cotsis is set to replace former deputy Labor leader Linda Burney.

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