One hit wonders: Federal election to test the staying power of six Teal Independents
Is the great Teal experiment over? They were welcomed into parliament on a wave of anti-Morrison hate but three years later the Teal Independents have a “fight on their hands”.
NSW
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They were welcomed into parliament on a wave of anti-Morrison hate and a platform of climate change, integrity and support for women, but three years later, political operatives warn the Teal Independents have a “fight on their hands” as they seek to retain their seats against the far less polarising Peter Dutton.
The next federal election will be a test for the staying power of six Teal Independents: Allegra Spender, Kylea Tink, Zoe Daniel, Sophie Scamps, Monique Ryan and Kate Chaney as voters review if the independent experiment of 2022 was a success or not.
The group has claimed credit for key Labor policies like HECS reform and have campaigned for issues like stronger climate targets and more transparency in politics.
But without the balance of power in the lower house — they have been able to deliver little more than advocacy.
“It’s been hard in this term, not having the balance of power in the lower house,” a Greens source said, explaining the Teal independents had little to do with negotiations on key policies in this term of parliament.
The independents have frequently voted with the Greens but in the current parliament — the two minor players have had little sway in the passage of legislation or major reforms in the lower house unlike the Senate where the crossbench is king.
Key issues like climate change and integrity have fallen by the wayside with environmental protection laws, gambling and electoral reforms being kicked down the road until at least February 2025 or more likely, after the election.
It’s this inaction that the Liberals will use the summer to campaign on, as they seek to take back the seats they lost in 2022.
The Liberals, who were the target of the independent assault more than two years ago, are not underestimating their chances of regaining some of the seats with Peter Dutton this week campaigning in Warringah and MacKellar.
Party insiders say the latter, with a margin of just 2.5 per cent, was among the key seats the party was targeting but they are running candidates in all Teal seats.
One source said the party would seek to tar the independent reputation by running a campaign proving the Teals have a lengthy record of voting with Labor and the Greens.
Another Liberal source also sought to undermine the Teal’s commitment to democracy, saying the group that had campaigned on greater respect for democratic processes, but fought against the abolition on Tink’s seat of North Sydney by calling for the Australia Electoral Commission to be reformed.
“Teals are consistent and persistent in their advocacy for a better democracy. Yet when the Australian Electoral Commission … abolished the seats of Higgins and North Sydney, the major Parties both swiftly accepted the decision, while the Teals and independents spread misinformation and implied corruption,” the Liberal said.
Speaking to the Saturday Telegraph, Tink stayed coy on her future plans but says the crossbench must hold both Labor and the Liberals to account.
“Only a strong crossbench can both hold the major parties to account while advocating for bold reform that can equitably tackle the big issues facing our nation,” she said.
With Morrison gone and cost of living replacing climate change as the number one focus for a lot of voters — insiders said the Teals have been shifting their strategy.
Instead of positioning themselves as a cohort of Liberal-adjacent, successful women out to get blue-ribbon seats, they are now positioning themselves as the underdog against the two major parties.
A political insider, who has worked closely with the six MPs, said they must position themselves as the opposite of major parties.
“They are highlighting where we have seen major parties come together against independents like gambling reform, transparency and publishing ministerial diaries, electoral reforms,” they said.
But the same source points out that more needs to be done on cost of living if the independents want to stay in touch with their audience with even the most affluent seats feeling the pinch of rising costs in some form.
“All lower house indies are focused on the cost of living,” they said.
Kooyong Teal Monique Ryan is taking notes, telling the Saturday Telegraph that cost of living will be her priority.
“I’ll be campaigning on the issues the community of Kooyong has told me it cares about: the cost-of-living crisis, housing availability and affordability, action on climate and the environment, integrity and accountability in government, better health care and disability care,” she said.
In Mackellar, Scamps too said she will prioritise cost of living and housing reform for the next term — if she survives a Liberal offensive.
“My priorities, if re-elected, will be to continue delivering cost of living relief, greater action on the housing crisis, cheaper electricity, stronger climate action, working for a healthier Mackellar and making taxes fairer for individuals and small businesses,” she said.
Another noose around the independent campaign’s neck was their eccentric backer Simon Holmes a Court with many seeing him as the puppet master instead of the Teals being a truly independent community movement.
Wentworth Teal Spender sought to push back on the view the group was beholden to Holmes a Court during an address at the National Press Club.
Australian National University political scientist Dr Ron Ley said it was exactly this image — of being just like a major political party run by its masters — that the Teals must steer clear of.
He points to their independent records of campaigning on niche issues as the key to standing out against a “global mobilisation of voters against incumbents and declining trust in major parties”.
In their first term, Spender and Chaney carved out a niche in tax reform, Scamps chose junk food advertising, Ryan campaigned successfully on HECS debt indexation changes, Daniel pushed for gambling reform and Tink chose housing and migration.
“The appeal of the independents is they are individuals so you can put a face to them so maybe that’s more important than policy for some voters,” he said.
“It’s an antidote to the parties that feel more unapproachable.
“The independents appeal to people who are somewhere between centre left and centre right. If you could paint them as extreme … then they lose that benefit.”
Dr Levy said there was evidence in recent elections around Australia that the independent movement stood a chance.
Independents, albeit not Teal ones, Thomas Emerson and Fiona Carrick became the first independents elected to the ACT Legislative Assembly in more than two decades.
In NSW, Jacquie Scruby became the first Teal to break into Macquarie Street, toppling Liberal Georgia Ryburn in Pittwater.
Dr Levy says the movement has staying power ”so long as the laws around political financing don’t impact them”.
But the verdict on that remains unclear after Labor and the Coalition kicked electoral reforms into the new year with little hope that parliament will return in February to make progress on the issue.
Labor proposals on reforms would limit any one donor to a $600,000 cap in donations per election and an electorate level funding cap of $800,000.
Holmes a Court previously spent $250,000 individually and his organisation Climate 200 raised $9m for Teal candidates in 2022.
As one Labor MP remarked, independents “can get into parliament but they need a lot of money like the Teals” only that might not be the case when the group next heads to the polls.
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