NSW’s average age cracks 40 amid warnings ‘silver tsunami’ is coming

For the first time the average age of NSW has cracked 40 – bringing with it a host of problems, experts say.

Sydney fortysomethings Nathaly and Giovanni Mele and their sons Javier and Dylan. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

The average age of NSW residents has risen past 40 for the first time, triggering concerns that housing and healthcare in the country’s most populous state aren’t ready for an impending “silver tsunami”.

New analysis of the population data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show the average age in the state has increased to 40.05, up from 39.95 last year, with Sydney the first major city in the country to hit the landmark figure.

The research, conducted by the Retirement Living Council, comes as the country’s fertility rate dropped to its lowest ever in December – with an Australian woman now having just 1.5 children over her lifetime.

Experts say the state’s ageing population comes with a raft of major problems, including shortages of appropriate aged care accommodation, a shortfall of key workers in sectors like healthcare and services, and budget blowouts.

A report released earlier this year by end-of-life advocacy group Violet found that 11 per cent of the annual federal health budget is already spent on the one per cent of the population who die in that year, with the number of deaths a year expected to more than double by 2040 to 402,800.

Experts say the state’s ageing population comes with a raft of major problems, including shortages of appropriate aged care accommodation. Picture: iStock

Retirement Living Council executive director Daniel Gannon said the figures had to spur action in NSW.

“There is a silver tsunami rapidly approaching, and yet we don’t have gold-plated housing and healthcare systems to respond to these significant demographic changes,” he said.

“We know our healthcare systems are already struggling under the weight of increasing demand and there aren’t enough homes on the market that offer viable right-sizing options for older people.

“By 2040, the number of over 75s across NSW will skyrocket from more than 670,000 to almost 1.2 million people, bringing with it obvious challenges for age-friendly housing supply, hospital and aged care bed availability.

“Like other states across the country, NSW isn’t ready for this significant spike in demand, which is why we need to see action now.”

NSW’s average age of 40 means Sydney is the first major city in the country to hit the landmark figure, after Tasmania hit the figure in 2012 and South Australia coming a year after.

Demographer Mark McCrindle said while all of Australia was getting older, NSW had increased pressures due to its young people moving out of the state in a bid to find cheaper housing and cost of living.

“NSW is ageing, along with the nation, because we currently have not only the lowest birthrate ever recorded, but record and increasing life expectancy,” he said.

“Additionally, Sydney, is seeing the internal migration of more young people; younger couples and young families to Queensland in search of housing affordability, and so further ageing the resident population.”

He said increasing births was the only way of slowing the ageing curve evident in NSW.

“If couples can start families earlier, they are more likely to have more children, and

Australia’s birthrate trends show that this is better achieved with simple baby bonus payments or tax benefits above subsidised child care,” he said.

Other countries have taken rapid action to address falling birthrates, with Japan creating incentives including a four-day work week for government employees in Tokyo in a bid to help working mums.

Australian business icon Dick Smith, however, said governments should be brave enough to curtail massive immigration and cap Australia’s population at 30 million so attention could be turned to how to manage an ageing population.

“If we look at countries like Japan, it has 120 million people but it’s going down in population … (but) I’ve been in Japan recently and its booming. (It shows) you can have a falling population and a booming economy,” he said.

“We are going to have to cope with an ageing population and with artificial intelligence and modern automation, we can do that – but we should stop the enormous growth at the moment.”

A shortage of aged care accommodation is one of the biggest pressures on the aged care sector, with the Aged Care Taskforce finding that by 2050 the residential aged care sector will need $56bn in capital funding to upgrade existing aged care rooms and build the additional rooms needed for an ageing population.

As recently as August, figures from NSW Health showed there were 680 patients in hospital beds across the state waiting for a spot in an aged care facility.

It comes as the Federal Government ushers in reforms in a bid to control the swelling aged care budget, including attempts to boost the number of older Australians able to stay at home – and out of aged care facilities – with support like house visits from nurses and alterations to homes.

Aged Care Minister Anika Wells. Picture: NewsWire/Martin Ollman

Coalition Health and Aged care spokeswoman Anne Ruston. Picture: Supplied

“The Albanese Government is investing $4.3bn in a new system of home care,” a spokesman for Aged Care Minister Anika Wells said, adding that 300,000 new home care packages would be introduced over the next decade.

Coalition Health and Aged care spokeswoman Anne Ruston said the government was “clearly now on the back foot” and was trying to play catch up, saying 76,000 older Australians were already on the priority waiting list for home packages.

Giovanni Mele, 47 who with wife Nathaly, 41, and their kids rents in the St George area, believes the main driver of the city’s ageing population revolves around the “out of reach” cost of living and housing pressures that drive people out of Sydney.

The couple have seen friends and colleagues pick up their families and move interstate in a bid for a more affordable life.

The couple only recently purchased their first property but did so outside of NSW in a more affordable market, rather than be locked into a lifelong mortgage.

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