NSW to miss housing targets by 30,000 amid plunging number of new tradies, Master Builders say

The plummeting number of apprentices and school-leavers studying trades will cripple the Minns government’s plans to build 75,000 homes a year, a peak housing body has warned.

The plummeting number of apprentices and school-leavers studying trades will cripple the Minns government’s plans to build 75,000 homes a year, a peak housing body has warned.

The gloomy forecast is contained in a new report from the Master Builders Association, which states NSW will miss its five-year housing target of 375,650 by 2029 by 27,600 homes.

Master Builders Association (MBA) NSW executive director Brian Seidler said a lack of skilled labour was the biggest factor threatening NSW’s targets.

The number of NSW students commencing building and construction industry studies, including TAFE and registered training organisations, plummeted from 16,465 to 11,855 between 2021 and 2023, a drop of 28 per cent, according to the National Centre for Vocational Education Research’s latest figures.

Mr Seidler said those shortfalls couldn’t be patched over by soaring migration.

Tradie Jordan Brickwood finished his apprenticeship late last year. Picture: Justin Lloyd

“There has to be a concerted effort by both government at federal and state level to get more people into the industry. More people coming in to the country is not the only answer,” he said.

“For the future of the building industry, we must have a strong and consistent approach to training young Australians.”

A spokeswoman for skills, TAFE and tertiary education Minister Steve Whan said the Albanese and Minns Governments have invested in 147,400 fee-free TAFE places in NSW over the next three years, “giving more people the opportunity to study for jobs in areas where the economy needs them most, such as construction”.

The NSW Government is also reviewing the current vocational education system to see how it can be improved.

The missed housing target means NSW would also miss out on the $915 million funding carrot being dangled by the Albanese government, which they would receive if they hit their share of the 1.2 million new homes meant to be built across Australia under the national housing accord.

While Premier Chris Minns has previously conceded the NSW Government was unlikely to hit an annual target of 75,000 in the accord’s first year, the analysis by the MBA shows it will only reach those levels in 2027-2028 (78,520 homes) and 2028-2029 (76,890 homes).

Premier Chris Minns has previously conceded NSW wouldn’t hit housing targets in the first year of its housing accord agreement with the federal government. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Nikki Short

The MBA didn’t factor in the Minns Government’s signature housing reforms – which they hope will allow them to build more than 100,000 new homes around selected train stations – into their analysis.

“They’re simply not factored into this number because we honestly don’t know what sort of impact they’ll have, and we don’t know how long they’ll (take) to make a change to build-ready land,” Mr Seidler said.

Planning Minister Paul Scully said the reforms were aimed at opening the floodgates at state-level for new homes to be built.

“I recognise other macro-economic factors are at play, but we’re giving ourselves the best chance to deliver on the National Housing Accord,” he said.

It comes as new data from the Housing Industry Association (HIA) also shows new loans for purchasing or building a home over the last year are at their lowest in 20 years.

“The elephant in the room is interest rates and the second is the cost of land, labour and materials which is compounded by interest rates,” HIA chief economist Tim Reardon said of the slowdown of new loans.

Jordan Brickwood, 22, finished his carpentry apprenticeship last year and said apprentice wages was one of the reasons young people were turning down taking up a trade.

“A lot of people are struggling to see that the hard work that pays off,” he said.

“You look at people on socials making money quickly, then look at the apprentice wage and get turned off learning (a trade).”

Do you have a story for The Daily Telegraph? Message 0481 056 618 or email [e-mail]