NSW suburbs seeing a decline in children under age of five

These are the suburbs in danger of losing schools, as family-friendly areas across Sydney and the rest of NSW are shrinking. Experts explain why. Search and see the list.

They are the NSW suburbs in danger of running out of children.

A low birth rate and people living in their own homes for longer means some family-friendly spots, which were once bursting with kids, have seen a dramatic drop in the number of under 5s.

Latest census data shows Warringah on Sydney’s northern beaches now has 1494 fewer under 5s living there than in 2011, while Fairfield in Sydney’s south west has 1362 fewer under 5s than it did 10 years ago.

Other traditionally ‘family-friendly’ suburbs such as Baulkham Hills in Sydney’s north west and Pittwater on Sydney’s northern beaches have also seen dramatic declines.

Demographer Simon Kuestenmacher said areas such as these were ageing and at risk of seeing schools close because of a lack of demand and shops and services pivot to appeal to older people.

“We will have plenty of suburbs where you will run out of students and schools will need to make decisions,” Mr Kuestenmacher said.

Mr Kuestenmacher, who co-founded The Demographics Group, said couples are choosing to have fewer children, others are not starting a family until later making it less likely that they will be able to have a large family, while others are choosing not to have any at all.

“Lots of young people are not positive about the world and don’t want to bring children into it,” Mr Kuestenmacher said.

“You need a population that is optimistic about the future and the economy to make babies.”

He said Millennials are beginning to have children, but are unable to buy in the traditional family-friendly suburbs due to empty nesters keeping hold of their three or four bedroom homes where they brought their own children up.

Young families are being forced out to the outer urban fringes or the regions.

Born and bred in Warringah, Charlie Durazza knows what a great place it is to bring up children.

Charlie Durazza and baby Leo pictured at their Manly Vale home in Warringah, which now has almost 1500 fewer under 5s than in 2011. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

The new mum to Leo, eight months, said she couldn’t think of anywhere better to raise a family.

Both her and her husband Peter, who owns his own landscaping business, grew up in the area.

“Growing up here was awesome,” Ms Durazza, 27, said.

“It’s close to the beach and there are loads of activities for kids.”

However, she said some of her peers have been forced to go elsewhere in order to afford to buy a property and they have considered moving too.

“We would have bought a house years ago if we could have afforded it, which is why we are still renting,” Ms Durazza said.

“We are hoping property prices will come down a bit so we can get in the market. Renting is very expensive too.”

“We want to stay here if we can to be close to our families.”

Areas that have seen an increase in the number of under 5s include the Bringelly – Green Valley regions in Sydney’s south west which gained 6308 children in the past 10 years.

Other areas which saw an increase include Blacktown in Sydney’s west, the north west growth areas of North and Rouse Hill and McGraths Hill; Campbelltown, Penrith, Liverpool, Camden, Sydney Inner City and Maitland in the Hunter.

The number of under 5s are decreasing in many areas which were previously kid friendly.

Anastasia Lloyd-Wallis from leading retail consultancy group Retail Doctor said the face of our suburbs are changing, with statistics showing a rise in DINKs – Double Income No Kids couples.

She said while there has been a drop in the number of people having babies, there’s been a 25 per cent rise in DINKS – up from 2.7m in 2013 to 3.4m in 2021. She said they have plenty of money and are happy to pay for convenience.

“We are seeing a move towards people wanting high density living,” Ms Lloyd-Wallis the company’s Head of Insights said.

“These people want ‘grab and go’ convenience food and delivery services.”

She said in the future there may be whole towns focused on serving older people, who are staying healthier and active for longer, but want to live somewhere nice.

She said in terms of finding enough workers, robots and automation will fill some of the gaps, with moves towards robot retail staff to help customers and even robot baristas.

NSW’S BABY DROUGHT REGIONS

Biggest declines in population aged 0-4, 2011 to 2021

Warringah: 1494 fewer under-5s

Fairfield: 1362

Eastern Suburbs – North: 1124

Baulkham Hills: 948

Richmond Valley – Hinterland: 896

Leichhardt: 878

Eastern Suburbs – South: 870

Blue Mountains: 806

Pittwater: 777

Marrickville – Sydenham – Petersham: 747

NSW’S EMERGING FAMILY HUBS

Biggest increases in population aged 0-4, 2011 to 2021

Bringelly – Green Valley: 6308 more under-5s

Blacktown – North: 4888

Rouse Hill – McGraths Hill: 2242

Campbelltown: 2201

Penrith: 2085

Liverpool: 1471

Camden: 1323

Sydney Inner City: 1243

Maitland: 1196

Lake Macquarie – West: 879

SOURCE: ABS – Census 2011 and Census 2021