Labor candidate Jeff Drayton concedes defeat to Nationals in Upper Hunter by-election
The Coalition has pulled off a miracle to avoid plunging further into minority government while Labor’s candidate has warned of “soul searching” ahead for his party.
NSW
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Labor’s candidate for the Upper Hunter has conceded defeat, declaring the party needs to do some “soul searching”.
Jeff Drayton issued a statement saying he had phoned the Nationals’ David Layzell to congratulate him.
“Our result yesterday, particularly in Singleton, is a warning to Labor that we can’t take any community for granted,” Mr Drayton said.
“Working class communities are hurting and they’re turning away from this Government. However, right now, they don’t see Labor as the answer.
“Labor needs to do some real soul searching as to how we will win these communities back. It’s going to take honest reflection and a lot of hard work.”
Premier Gladys Berejiklian had earlier declared her government would need “more than a miracle” to avoid her government plunging further into minority — and last night she got one, with the Nationals set to win the crucial Upper Hunter by-election.
With almost one third of the vote counted on Sunday, the Nationals were predicted to end up at 55.9 per cent after preferences.
The result is devastating for Labor leader Jodi McKay, who now faces a fight for political survival with frustrated MPs having been “canvassing the mood” for a leadership spill in the lead-up to the by-election.
The mood at The Nationals event in Singleton was high as the party headed towards an apparent election victory.
Winning candidate Dave Layzell wasn’t ready to declare a win by 9pm, but there were cheers of joy and plenty of hugs and kisses between supporters after the tough election campaign.
“It looks like The Nationals are the only party that can win this … but it has shown we have to work every day to build people’s trust and their support,” Nationals senator Matt Canavan said.
Despite the ALP challenging internal Nationals polling that had Labor in an almost unwinnable position, a group of senior Labor MPs were making preparations “should we fail to win a seat from a government in crisis”.
“We have been canvassing the mood for a spill. You could say, taking the temperature,” one Labor MP said.
“There are still some people on the fence. Upper Hunter has been seen as do-or-die for Jodi.”
While party rules imposed by Kevin Rudd require the support of 60 per cent of the Caucus to demand a ballot, the Labor MPs clamouring for change claimed the number of MPs joining them was growing.
Opposition transport spokesman Chris Minns — who lost the top job to Jodi McKay two years ago — remains the favourite, although he will only move if he has a clear majority.
Labor deployed a targeted strategy, focusing on shoring up votes in the mining strongholds of Muswellbrook and Singleton rather than trying to spread resources across the entire seat.
Early counting showed the strategy appeared to have worked, with its primary vote up by 9 per cent in Sandy Hollow, in the Muswellbrook local government area.
Labor’s primary vote in Mr Drayton’s hometown of Denman was also up 5 per cent.
However, the party fared worse at all the other polling booths.
In Ms McKay’s home town of Gloucester, Labor was trailing, pulling just 181 of 1240 votes in the first preferences count.
With just over 40 per cent of the vote counted, Labor was experiencing a swing against it of more than 8 per cent, compared with the Nationals 1 per cent, and 10 per cent against the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party.
Proving that coal was a critical issue in the seat, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party, which focused its campaign on securing jobs, enjoyed a positive swing of 11.6 per cent.
Working against the party was Ms Berejiklian’s rock star status, with disaffected Nationals voters who had been preparing a protest pulling back amid growing talk of minority government.
“They were happy to hurt the Nationals, but they did not want to hurt Gladys,” a Labor source said.
The other factor named was Nationals Leader John Barilaro’s ability to kill off issues, either by throwing money as they arose or pledging to listen — something he openly declared former MP Michael Johnsen had not done.
Mr Barilaro told a packed Singleton Diggers club on Saturday night: “We’ve got a substantial lead, it would have to go seriously wrong from here, so we are confident we’ve got victory, we are confident we’ve won the seat.”
In his speech Mr Barilaro could not resist a cheeky dig at Malcolm Turnbull, starting his speech by thanking the ex-Prime Minister.
Mr Barilaro had earlier in the campaign called for Mr Turbull’s resignation from the party for backing independent Kirsty O’Connell.
The deputy premier also joked that NSW energy minister Matt Kean could “come out of witness protection” now the race was over.
Nationals candidate Dave Layzell used his speech to thank his electorate and the Premier.
“There’s no doubt there was a great groundswell that came particularly in the last few weeks,” Mr Layzell said.
“I want to thank our Premier, our rock star, our Gladys,” he said.
Staring down the barrel of defeat, Ms McKay refused to answer any questions about a potential leadership spill.
The Labor leader on a knife’s edge as the party all but conceded a loss in the Upper Hunter by-election.
Instead, Ms McKay paying tribute to her “remarkable” candidate Jeff Drayton.
“We have not held this seat in 90 years and we said it would be a miracle, but with Jeff Drayton we gave it a red hot go,” she yelled at party room faithfuls at the Muswellbrook Workers Club.
“We went into a by-election and we knew it was tough.
“Thank you to a really decent bloke that put yourself forward for election. You are such an incredible person.”
A disappointed looking Mr Drayton hid his disappointment with humour.
“Last time people yelled out Jeff so many times it was at a Wiggles concert,” he joked.
He did not concede — “Counting will continue over the next few days, we are up against it but we will continue, watching closely — but confirmed a loss would not mean the end of his push to get to Macquarie street.
“I’m not going to give up on parliament, we need working people in parliament,” he said.
A Labor source predicted Ms McKay would fight to hold on to her job despite a loss.
“If Labor loses, this will be the worst result for an opposition in a by-election in a government-held seat in the history of NSW,” the source said.
The stakes had been high for the state government, which would have been plunged further in to minority government had it lost the seat, having to rely on crossbenchers other than former ministers Gareth Ward and John Sidoti.
As a result, the Nationals rolled out their top guns.
Former leaders Barnaby Joyce and John Anderson joined current leader Michael McCormack to hand out how-to-vote cards at polling booths, as well as a swag of ministers including Treasurer Dominic Perrottet, Water Minister Melinda Pavey, and Regional Transport and Roads Minister Paul Toole.
Nationals candidate Dave Layzell and Deputy Premier John Barilaro were early starters at Muswellbrook Sports Centre, before Labor’s team of Ms McKay and candidate Jeff Drayton arrived.
Voters had to run the gauntlet of supporters from all parties along the long skinny path to the sports centre.
For Mr Drayton’s daughter Ella, it was an exciting day — not only the first time voting but voting for her dad.
“I’m stoked that he is doing it and glad that he had the chance to do it,” she said.
“He’s just so passionate, he knows the area so well, I’m just happy he had this chance to do it because if everyone gives him a go, he’ll do a good job.”
On the other side, Mr Layzell had his wife, father-in-law and four daughters turn out in support.
“The big burden for me is the weight of responsibility that I don’t let anyone down, my family, my community — I’m very aware that I don’t want to let them down,” he said.
“I hope we’ve shown to the entire state what a great place it is to live, a great place to work and play.”
Mr Barilaro said it had been tough campaign but Mr Layzell had stepped up to the plate.
“I can’t say enough about this individual, Dave and his family have put everything on the line for six weeks,” he said.
“18 months until the next general election and we’ve got a lot of work to do and a lot of promises at the 2019 election we want to deliver on.”
Ms Berejiklian thanked the voters of Upper Hunter for their “directness, frankness and their respect” shown during the campaign.
On average the swing in a by-election against the government has been between 15-20 per cent.
More than one third of votes were already locked in before Saturday, with 34 per cent of votes cast at the pre-poll booths.
The NSW Electoral Commission declared it would only be counting two pre-poll booths on Saturday.
The Singleton pre-poll booth had an estimated 6500 votes while Quirindi had about 1000.
The commission planned to stop counting at 10.30pm.
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