Liberal Party’s primary vote in Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth plunges to 39 per cent
THE Liberal Party’s primary vote in the seat of Wentworth has plunged from 62 to just 39 per cent since Malcolm Turnbull said he would retire from politics after being overthrown as prime minister. If Kerryn Phelps runs as an independent, she could win.
NSW
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THE Liberal Party’s primary vote in Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth has plunged after the coup against him from 62 to 39 per cent, with Kerryn Phelps, running as an independent, now in a winnable position after preferences from Labor.
The stunning poll results, conducted by ReachTEL on Monday night, indicated the two-party-preferred vote would be 50-50, meaning the blue-ribbon Liberal seat could fall into the hands of another party for the first time in more than 60 years.
Australia Institute executive director Ben Oquist, who commissioned the poll, said the two-party preferred figure was 50-50, likely between the Liberal Party and an independent, such as Ms Phelps, a former Australian Medical Association President and current City of Sydney councillor.
“The poll shows that a strong independent, even with a slightly lower primary vote than the Liberals, would have a good chance of winning on these results when you factor into a likely strong preference flow from the Greens and then Labor,” he said.
“The 50-50 two party-preferred figure shows overall that the Liberals are in trouble but a good community independent could have a better chance than Labor of winning the seat.
“I think 22 per cent is a bedrock vote for a strong independent given that none has officially declared yet.”
The ReachTEL poll, which surveyed 886 residents on Monday, found Labor candidate Tim Murray’s primary was 29 per cent, the independent vote was split between Kerryn Phelps and Sydney MP Alex Greenwich at 11 per cent each and the Greens’ Dominic Wy Kanak at 9 per cent.
Mr Greenwich has ruled out running for the seat and Professor Phelps has not yet confirmed she will stand.
At the last election, Mr Turnbull recorded a primary vote of 62 per cent and a two-party-preferred of 68 per cent.
The Liberal primary vote had fallen to 39 per cent after last week’s leadership coup — and an even lower 34 per cent when Australia’s former ambassador to Israel, Dave Sharma, was named as the candidate.
But Mr Sharma will be up against Andrew Bragg, who confirmed his candidature yesterday and resigned from the Business Council of Australia to run.
Mr Bragg, who is expected to have Mr Turnbull’s backing, will tell preselectors and voters he is prepared to “risk everything” to represent Wentworth.
He will highlight the fact that he lives in the community as opposed to Mr Sharma who lives 24km outside the eastern suburbs seat in the upper north shore suburb of Turramurra.