Labor’s Bega by-election victory sends ‘big message’ to Perrottet: Chris Minns

Labor leader Chris Minns says his party’s victory in Bega, which takes the Liberals further into a minority status, sends a “big message” to the NSW Premier.

Senior Liberals are “relieved” that they didn’t cop even more of a bruising at Saturday’s by-elections despite losing Bega to Labor and suffering a big swing to an independent in Willoughby.

But Labor Leader Chris Minns has claimed his party’s victory in Bega sent a “big message” to Premier Dominic Perrottet “to lift his game”.

The result takes the Perrottet government further into minority status, requiring the support of independents to pass legislation.

Labor candidate Michael Holland, pictured with NSW Labor leader Chris Minns, won the seat of Bega over the weekend.

Mr Minns said the results showed voters had marked down Mr Perrottet’s handling of the Covid pandemic.

Describing Saturday night as a “tough day at the office,” Mr Perrottet said it was disappointing to lose Bega, which had been held by departing MP Andrew Constance on a margin of 6.9 per cent.

He said the government would “reflect” and “learn from” Saturday’s vote.

But Mr Perrottet vowed to not change course in his response to the Covid pandemic.

“The feedback on the ground in each of those seats was that it was very much focused on local issues,” he said.

The Premier acknowledged the government could improve by communicating with voters better, particularly on local projects.

“By-elections as we know are notoriously hard for governments, but I think there’s some green shoots yesterday as well,” Mr Perrottet said.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Flavio Brancaleone

On Sunday, with an unprecedented number of postal votes still to be counted, Liberal candidate Bridget Sakr appeared to have secured a swing towards the government in Strathfield.

Many Liberals had feared a worse outcome after the four by-elections, leading to some relief in senior government ranks on Sunday.

The polls came amid a difficult period for Prime Minister Scott Morrison, with some Liberal strategists privately suggesting that voters used the state by-elections to vent anger at the federal government.

Mr Perrottet rejected an assertion from Treasurer Matt Kean that the Liberal brand had been damaged by federal issues.

“I take responsibility for the results yesterday,” he said. “It’s on me.”

“I believe that people across our state distinguish between federal issues and state issues,” he said.

The government had been pessimistic about retaining Bega, due to the personal popularity of departing MP Andrew Constance.

Labor candidate Michael Holland, who claimed victory on Saturday night with a 14 per cent swing in his favour, was seen by both sides to be an incredibly strong candidate in part due to his history as a local obstetrician.

Labor MPs on Sunday said the victory in Bega had provided the party “hope” ahead of next year’s election, despite their leader playing down the statewide implication of winning the seat.

“It’s important that we don’t draw from the NSW voters a message they didn’t say. There is no mandate for NSW Labor, we’ve got to earn that,” Mr Minns said.

Both the Labor and Liberal parties were claiming wins of their own in the seat of Strathfield on Sunday. Labor’s Jason Yat-Sen Li is on track to retain the seat vacated by former leader Jodi McKay, but early results show the party had suffered a drop in support.

“To be in a position where we had a swing towards the government in that seat, I think is an incredibly strong result,” Mr Perrottet said.

Strathfield Liberal candidate Bridget Sakr hugging her husband on Saturday night. Picture: Damian Shaw

Government sources said that if voters wanted to punish the government over its Covid strategy, they would have suffered a bigger loss in Strathfield, which had been placed under some of the strictest lockdown measures during the Delta outbreak.

But Mr Minns labelled Strathfield as an “extremely tough electorate” and indicated that independent candidate Elizabeth Farrelly had cost Labor votes.

Willoughby candidate Tim James retained former Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s old seat, but suffered an 18 per cent swing to local independent Larissa Penn.

Mr Perrottet said that result in part reflected female voters turning away from the party.

He said he wants to see more Liberal women in parliament.

“We need to do more, and we will,” he said.

“I think our track record is pretty poor in that space.”

LESSONS TO LEARN FOR BOTH PARTIES

COMMENT

There was something for everyone to take away from the “super Saturday” of by-elections.

Labor won the day, securing a historic win in Bega and relishing the bruising 18 per cent swing meted out against the Liberals in the blue-riband bolt-hole of Willoughby.

But despite being plunged further into minority, there was relief in senior government ranks on Sunday that they got off so easily.

Premier Dominic Perrottet was right to call the results a “tough day in the office”, but senior government members had been expecting worse.

By-elections are traditionally punishing for incumbent governments, so anything the Liberal Party can take away from Saturday’s results will be seen in the party as a positive.

Liberals saw a silver lining in Strathfield, where candidate Bridget Sakr had secured a small swing towards the government (on the votes counted by Sunday).

Liberals candidate for Willoughby Tim James. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Flavio Brancaleone

She didn’t win, but the fact that an electorate that faced the toughest lockdown measures last year didn’t punish the government was seen in Liberal ranks as a positive.

Labor blames high-profile independent Elizabeth Farrelly for splitting their vote. If she had directed voters to preference Labor, Jason Yat-Sen Li’s vote would have been higher, it was argued.

The swing against Tim James in Willoughby to local independent Larissa Penn was damaging, but pessimistic Liberals at one stage feared they may even lose the electorate.

The short campaign period, which hampered the independent’s run, was a blessing for the Liberals. “I would have been happy if Tim James won by one vote in Willoughby,” Perrottet said on Sunday.

Perrottet also acknowledged that the result reflected the government finding it difficult to attract female voters.

He believed that James will build on his substantially reduced margin at the general election next year, but Liberal strategists are worried that Penn – with more time and more resources – could pose a renewed threat in 2023.

The biggest blow to the government was the 14 per cent swing in Bega which gave Labor the seat for the first time, after the resignation of Andrew Constance.

Michael Holland’s historic win has given Labor MPs fresh hope for next year’s election, a hope that many haven’t had for a decade.

Both sides saw the former obstetrician as an exceptional candidate. “He’s delivered half the children in the electorate,” one source quipped.

A similarly well-regarded candidate retained Monaro for the Nationals, but Nichole Overall did suffer a 6.6 per cent swing, on votes counted so far.

Labor leader Chris Minns says his party’s victories in Bega and Strathfield send a message to Perrottet over his handling of the Covid pandemic. Perrottet argues the polls were fought on local issues, and the government suffered the loss of its three biggest identities.

While Labor claimed the win, the Liberals still managed to walk away with something of a consolation prize.