Labor leadership battle: Winner has enormous task ahead

Whoever steps into Jodi McKay’s shoes as NSW Labor leader will face an uphill battle to woo voters back while saving the party that ‘eats its young’.

Long before coming under fire over the leaking of a “dirt file” on Labor leadership contender Chris Minns this week, Jodi McKay was a leader under siege.

In the top job for almost two years, the former NBN TV newsreader turned Labor MP was spending more time fighting for political survival than landing punches on her opponents.

Jodi McKay announces she is standing down as NSW Labor leader. Picture: AAP Image/Bianca De Marchi

Having won a bitterly fought leadership ballot against Minns in June 2019 to secure 58 per cent of the Caucus vote, McKay presided over a team that would remain divided throughout her reign.

The disunity was exacerbated by her poor showing in the opinion polls, last week slumping to 17 per cent as preferred leader, with a tracking poll putting Labor’s primary vote at a disastrous 28 per cent.

At the Upper Hunter by-election last weekend, some of her MPs were openly attacking her, with one frontbencher criticising her to a Liberal Minister as the pair handed out how-to-vote cards.

McKay with Labor candidate Jeff Drayton after the Upper Hunter by-election. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Peter Lorimer

The disunity would be of no surprise to former ALP general-secretary Kaila Murnain who was in the top job when McKay’s predecessor Michael Daley was forced to resign after a disastrous final week of campaigning in the lead-up to the last election, which included the veteran MP telling a Labor function that young people were leaving Sydney because “Asians with PhDs” were taking their jobs.

Daley was also unable to recall how much some of his party’s signature education policies would cost.

Aware of the disunity in the Caucus, Murnain approached the well-liked federal MP Jason Clare to see if he’d consider replacing Daley.

The plan was for Clare to be installed in the Western Sydney seat of Cabramatta, with incumbent MP Nick Lalich to stand aside. But Clare said he wanted to stay in Canberra, although the talk in the party office at the time was that his federal colleague Chris Bowen — part of Minns’ tight circle of supporters — had convinced him to stay.

McKay’s leadership rival Chris Minns quit the frontbench this week after a ‘dirt file’ about him was circulated. Picture: Richard Dobson

The reason Murnain had wanted Clare to take the job was because she believed both McKay and Minns would struggle to unite what had become a deeply divided team.

No longer split on factional lines, the traditional NSW ALP Right and Left factions had been eroding since the Right-controlled Sussex Street intervened to install Left-wing union leader Luke Foley in the top job.

Where factions could previously cut deals, it had suddenly become more complicated, with the divisions along personality lines. Both Minns and McKay had loyal supporters from both the traditional Left and Right factions.

And it was no longer just Minns who was the only threat, with Daley openly making his interest in reclaiming his old job known to his colleagues, while opposition health spokesman Ryan Park was also known to be keen for a tilt.

Minns supporter Walt Secord also quit the frontbench this week.

If the pressure of trying to find a voice against the publicly adored Premier Gladys Berejiklian was not enough, some of McKay’s own MPs were waiting for a misstep.

And it came with what the Liberals have been guffawing over as an “own goal” by McKay and Labor MP Trish Doyle after the pair triggered the disastrous Upper Hunter by-election after revealing the explosive claims that former Nationals MP Michael Johnsen had allegedly raped a prostitute from the Blue Mountains in state parliament. He has denied the claims.

Rather than being seen as a test for the incumbent government, the focus of the by-election quickly became McKay’s leadership.

This was justified by the fact that the Coalition was drowning in scandal, the most recent being the police investigations into allegations of sexual violence against former families and communities Minister Gareth Ward. He has denied the allegations.

As revealed by The Daily Telegraph last week, even before the by-election result was called, frustrated Labor MPs were already hitting the phones to gather support for a spill.

While McKay clung on, a second misstep came when an ill-advised staffer from the office of deputy leader Yasmin Catley distributed a “dirt file” on Minns.

The problem was, the “dirt” in the files had long been discarded as false, with seasoned Liberal Party “dirt-digging” operative John Macgowan even jokingly tweeting: “Sorry, but it’s not a dirt file if it’s just yarns I’d already dropped in 2018, it’s a homage.”

Suddenly, McKay’s rivals had a legitimate reason to demand she stand aside.

McKay this week gave former Labor leader Michael Daley Secord’s Opposition Treasurer role. Picture: AAP Image/James Gourley

The only problem was Minns did not have the “super majority” — 60 per cent of the Caucus — that was required under the new Kevin Rudd rules designed to restrict leadership spills.

And compounding his endeavours was a seemingly reluctant ALP general-secretary Bob Nanva, who — unlike his “headkicking” predecessors — appeared to be doing everything he could not to get involved.

A nudge and a wink from Nanva — or a headknock — would send at least half a dozen MPs, loosely known as the “head office faction”, over to Minns.

According to one Labor source, McKay had asked Nanva for “48 hours” after the by-election to reflect on her future.

McKay denied the conversation ever occurred. She also announced that she would be staying on.

The dirt file was the last straw for Minns supporter Walt Secord, who declared he would be quitting the frontbench. Minns soon followed. The resignations followed the respected left-winger Penny Sharpe quitting over a policy dispute.

Former Labor premier Bob Carr has backed Minns. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Dylan Coker

If the strategy was designed to force Nanva’s hand, it may have helped.

But the clincher was McKay’s decision to offer Daley Secord’s old job as shadow treasurer, presumably to bring over his votes.

However, the decision backfired, with some MPs who had been sitting on the fence turning to Minns in revolt.

By Thursday night — with his lieutenant Daniel Mookhey on the phone “doing Nanva’s work” and Park agreeing not to contest — Minns was nearing his majority.

With the Kogarah MP also having the backing of the Health Services Union, Australian Workers Union and the SDA “shoppies”, it was becoming clear to the final wavering MPs McKay was doomed.

While Minns has yet to confirm his tilt at the party leadership — and Daley is yet to rule himself out — Labor Party elders concede that whoever takes the chair has a big job ahead of them, not least of which is winning back disaffected voters — especially in Western Sydney — while also unifying the team.

Should it be Minns — a Princeton University graduate who was touted as future leader when he became Young Labor president — former ALP general-secretary Graham Richardson believes he should get at least two terms to prove himself.

“You have got to give him time to have a couple of cracks,” the SkyNews political commentator said.

“I wouldn’t be assuming we are going to win the next election. That would be an enormous achievement. You’ve got to allow someone to dig in.

“As Neville Wran said, ‘when you’re sick of saying it, they’re just getting the message’.”

Whether it is Minns or Daley, McKay’s successor will be under pressure to get results from the outset.

“The Labor Party eats its young. We have a habit of chewing through our leaders. Ironically (former premier) Nathan Rees would be just about ready now,” one party official said.

(If it’s Minns), he will have to put up or shut up,” they added.

Former premier Bob Carr, who was Labor leader for 17 years, said he had faith in Minns’ ability to rise to the challenge should he win the leadership.

“One way to unify the party is to produce wins against this scandal-tainted, grossly incompetent and hugely wasteful government,” Mr Carr said.

“I predict he will, and from his first weeks.”

“Ever since he was Young Labor president, this has been his path,” said a former party official.

“His biggest issue will be reuniting Caucus. He will want to reward people in his clique — like Jo Haylen, a leftie from the inner-city, who he may want as his deputy.

“But if he wants unity, he may have to think about some of the others. Labor at this stage is on track to lose another two to three seats.

“He has a massive job ahead, but this is what he has wanted. It is do or die.”