Key seat Gilmore could flip to Coalition according to new polling

New polling suggests a key Labor seat is set to flip to the Liberals, in a major boost to Peter Dutton’s bid to become prime minister.

A key Labor seat required by Peter Dutton to form government is set to flip to the Liberals, with new polling showing the Coalition is on track to win the south coast seat of Gilmore.

The poll of 684 residents, carried out on behalf of the Australian Forest Products Association (AFPA), found locals plan to abandon Labor, with 52.8 per cent of respondents saying they’d vote for the Liberal Party on a two-party preferred basis if the election was held tomorrow.

Just 47.2 per cent would vote for Labor, in a swing which would return former NSW Transport Minister Andrew Constance to politics, while helping Peter Dutton edge closer to being Prime Minister.

Andrew Constance and Fiona Phillips are heading into round two in 2025. Picture: Left, Tom McGann, Right, Supplied

The uComms poll, conducted from February 17 to 20, also found residents of the south coast seat felt strongly about the timber industry – with nine in ten agreeing or strongly agreeing Australia should grow more timber to help fight climate change and secure the country’s future timber supply.

“These polling results fly in the face of disinformation being spread about Australia’s sustainable native forestry by activists who live far from the forestry-underpinned communities in the seat of Gilmore,” AFPA CEO Diana Hallam said.

Eight out of 10 respondents also felt the timber industry was very important or somewhat important to supporting local jobs and Australia’s economy.

“Gilmore is just one of many federal electorates where forestry and its supply chain is critical to the local economy and local forest management,” Ms Hallam said.

The south coast seat is among those being targeted by the Coalition, who only need the slightest swing to flip the razor-thin 0.2 per cent margin.

Mr Constance, who was the NSW MP for Bega from 2003 to 2021, unsuccessfully ran for the seat in 2022, when he lost to Labor’s Fiona Phillips, the incumbent MP.