Jobs in Nationals-held seats most at risk in net zero, new analysis shows

Coalition-held seats face huge job losses under net zero policy as new data reveals rural and regional areas will bear the heaviest burden.

The Coalition has “nothing to gain and everything to lose” by backing in net zero by 2050, with new analysis showing it’ll almost exclusively be Nationals-held seats hit hardest by major job losses stemming from the march to lowering emissions.

New data from the Institute of Public Affairs think-tank shows the federal Coalition now holds just one of the 20 seats which will be least impacted by job losses associated with pursuing net zero, compared to 12 in 2021 – following Teal independents winning a raft of previously Liberal-held seats.

That compares to the seats which will be most impacted by job losses from the energy transition, with 16 of the 20 seats with the most jobs at risk held by the Coalition.

The analysis comes as senior National MP Barnaby Joyce leads a backbench rebellion over the Coalition’s stance on net zero, by introducing a bill on Monday morning to dump the target.

Mr Joyce also helmed a press conference out the front of parliament on Monday, backed by Coalition colleagues including fellow former Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, Senator Matt Canavan, Flynn MP Colin Boyce and Groom MP Garth Hamilton.

Barnaby Joyce said “there’s got to be an epiphany” over net zero targets, claiming normal Australians were already being hurt by the energy transition by not being able to afford their power bills Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Mr Joyce said “there’s got to be an epiphany” over net zero targets, claiming normal Australians were already being hurt by the energy transition by not being able to afford their power bills.

While the Nationals and broader Coalition have initiated broader reviews of their stance on the target, Mr Joyce’s bill looms as a major challenge for the leadership of David Littleproud and Sussan Ley – whose electorates are in the top 20 of those to be affected by job losses.

According to the IPA, 21 per cent of jobs – or 13,440 – would be impacted in Mr Littleproud’s electorate of Maranoa, the second most of any electorate, behind Flynn.

Ms Ley’s electorate of Farrer has 12.6 per cent of jobs at risk, or a total of 9,555, the 13th highest electorate impacted.

Mr Boyce’s Queensland seat of Flynn has 16,289 jobs – or 24.1 per cent of the workforce – which could be hit.

Mr Littleproud said Mr Joyce’s bill wasn’t a sign of a backbench revolt and that “backbenchers … have every right to bring forward private member’s bills”.

He added while the Nationals had held their seats at the federal election, net zero remained a key issue in the bush, telling Sky “community after community is being touched by this”.

Barnaby Joyce ahead of moving his private member’s bill on Monday. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Ms Ley said she wouldn’t foreshadow the outcome of her party’s review, but said “an overreliance on renewables” was to blame for power bills soaring.

The IPA’s methodology calculates how many jobs in each electorate are in industries where emissions are above the economy-wide average, in sectors such as agriculture, forestry, logging, coal mining, and oil and gas extraction.

Daniel Wild, the IPA’s deputy executive director, said net zero “is wreaking havoc on our most important industries of mining, manufacturing, and agriculture”.

“The Coalition has nothing to gain and everything to lose from its continued commitment to net zero, and it is their constituents that are bearing the brunt of net zero mandates,” he said.

On Monday evening, One Nation MP Pauline Hanson moved a motion to urgently scrap net zero - which was supported by Coalition MPs Alex Antic and Matt Canavan before being defeated.