Inside story: How Dutton coup began and how Libs leadership saga became so complex
LAST Friday, no Australian would have believed Malcolm Turnbull would not survive the week as prime minister. The coup against him was fast, brutal and treacherous.
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LAST Friday, not one Australian would have believed Malcolm Turnbull would not survive the week as prime minister.
The coup against him was fast, brutal and treacherous.
Turnbull was blindsided by Peter Dutton.
The government had been tracking nicely, gaining momentum since the federal Budget, where surplus and tax cuts were well received. Newspoll results were improving, despite a mounting number of consecutive losses for Turnbull, well beyond the measure of 30 he set for Tony Abbott.
Leading into last month’s by-elections sparked by Bill Shorten’s deception of the Australian public over the dual citizens in his ranks, the pressure was on the Labor leadership — not Turnbull’s.
HIGH NOON: THE CONTENDERS TO BECOME AUSTRALIAN PRIME MINISTER
THE LEGAL HURDLE PETER DUTTON MUST OVERCOME
Expectations were high that Labor would lose one or both of the by-elections to government candidates, and Anthony Albanese was poised to seize the leadership from a weakened Shorten. But the primary vote in Longman for the Liberal National Party was shockingly low at just 30 per cent.
There were vocal demands for a reset of government policy, particularly on energy, immigration and company tax cuts for big business, which had featured heavily in Labor’s campaign.
MISGUIDED POWER PLAY
But rather than overhaul the government’s policy platform, Turnbull forged ahead with his National Energy Guarantee.
On Tuesday last week, Turnbull made the explosive commitment to legislate the Paris emissions target of 26 per cent.
ALL SHORTEN HAS TO DO IS SIT BACK AND SMILE
SHARRI MARKSON: SPITEFUL BATTLE DAMAGING THE COALITION
This was always going to be a lightning rod issue. Voters wanted action on electricity prices, which were soaring, not emissions.
The NEG had targets for emissions and reliability, but no price targets. This was a point Tony Abbott highlighted loudly and effectively.
MPs were dismayed that, at a time when they needed to abandon unpopular policies, Turnbull was blindly forging ahead with them. Marginal-seat MPs across the country — in Queensland in particular — were livid.
Parliament was sitting — it was the first week back after the winter break — and late on Tuesday and into Wednesday MPs started talking with Dutton about whether he would challenge Turnbull before the next election.
Last Friday The Daily Telegraph broke the news that Dutton was being urged to challenge Turnbull and was seriously considering his position.
The highest levels of the Turnbull government did not take this report seriously enough.
Certainly, Turnbull did not comprehend the gravity of the threat against his political survival.
By that night, however, he understood this had the potential to become a major issue, and overturned his decision to legislate the Paris emissions targets.
MPs responded by saying the concerns about Turnbull’s leadership were broader than energy and included his ability to take the fight to Shorten.
MENDING THE FENCES
After the Telegraph’s report, Turnbull and Dutton had a private phone call. It was so collegiate that afterwards the Prime Minister was still under the impression he did not have an irreconcilable problem with his home affairs minister.
During the call, the pair are understood to have discussed the concerns of conservatives, including Marise Payne’s gender neutral nonsense in the defence portfolio.
They discussed the devastating result in Longman.
Turnbull is understood to have pointed out losing LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg was Dutton’s chosen pick — Dutton agreed.
Turnbull noted the Liberal Party had not run candidates in Western Australia in order to properly resource Longman.
Again, Dutton agreed.
The pair discussed radio hosts Ray Hadley and Alan Jones and their push for Dutton to seize the leadership from Turnbull.
It’s understood Dutton talked about looking for a way out of the leadership contest without losing face with his conservative on-air supporters. He told Turnbull he did not want to run against him.
And Turnbull believed him.
Mathias Cormann negotiated for Dutton to send a tweet publicly backing the Prime Minister.
Throughout Saturday, Christopher Pyne hit the phones to shore up support for Turnbull and to gauge the temperature.
Some MPs claim he was talking Dutton down, saying he was the most unpopular politician in the entire government. Pyne denies this.
On the weekend, Dutton had the support of Queensland politicians and some marginal MPs, but Victorian conservatives were not treating any leadership challenge seriously.
In fact, they were arguing against it, saying the transactional cost of overthrowing a prime minister would outweigh any benefit.
Other enemies of Turnbull, like Craig Kelly from NSW, also did not support a change of leader.
THE TIDE TURNS
But the momentum for change grew on Monday when Turnbull, Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg and Treasurer Scott Morrison held a press conference announcing an entirely new energy policy.
The backflip sparked panic among MPs and swayed some to change their position on a challenge. Conservative factional leaders swung into action. Dutton’s supporters briefed journalists and MPs that he could challenge Turnbull the next day if he had the numbers — or would wait until he was sure of his support and launch a bid when Parliament returned on September 10.
While the Prime Minister went to bed early, his backers and Dutton’s team worked late into Monday night making calls ahead of Tuesday’s party room. Dutton had not yet made a decision about whether to call a spill, but it’s likely he would have waited until September — until he was certain he would win.
Turrnbull decided to call the spill, knowing his rival did not have the numbers. It shocked his colleagues. He won by 48 votes to 35, but it brought on the leadership crisis, exposing the fact that 42 per cent of his own party room did not support him. It was a position from which a prime minister could not recover.
Ultimately, in the space of a week, Turnbull came unstuck through policy madness and underestimating his political enemies.
TIMELINE OF TREACHERY
TUESDAY, AUGUST 14
— The Daily Telegraph reveals Turnbull will legislate emissions reduction target of 26%
WEDNESDAY
— Abbott and nine colleagues rebel on emission reductions
THURSDAY
— Dutton tells Ray Hadley he backs the NEG
FRIDAY
— The Daily Telegraph reveals Dutton urged to challenge
SATURDAY
— The Daily Telegraph reveals Dutton is considering striking
SUNDAY
— Turnbull backers shore up support while Dutton forces work the phones
MONDAY
— Turnbull dumps unpopular policies
TUESDAY
— Dutton challenges, loses 48-35 and resigns
WEDNESDAY
— Morrison a contender
— Dutton refuses to rule out a second challenge
— Petition to force a partyroom meeting
THURSDAY
— Cormann, Fifield and Cash resign
— Dutton urges new spill
— Turnbull requests letter with 43 signatures
— Party room meeting noon today; Turnbull says he’d quit Parliament
— Julie Bishop a contender