Huge number of NSW homes under threat from erosion, fire and floods: Report

The number of homes in NSW under threat from coastal erosion, bushfires and floods is set to skyrocket in the next three decades, a new report has predicted.

Coastal erosion will pose a severe risk over the next 30 years to almost double the number of NSW homes now under threat, according to a study of climate outlooks and their impact on properties.

The investigation “shaped” the current and future risk profile of NSW homes from coastal erosion, fires and floods.

The scientific modelling, from British-based global climate analysts Groundsure, reveals thousands of NSW homeowners and investors face severe consequences to land values, zoning restrictions, and insurance premiums because of the possibility of increased erosion, fire and flood threats driven by climate change.

The number of homes at risk from coastal erosion in Sydney is set to rise from 937 now to 1387 by 2050, although the mid-north coast is where the risk is set to increase the most.

The number of properties on the state’s mid-north coast now prone to beach erosion today, 377, will almost double to 635 in the next 30 years.

Friends Emma Fogarty and Ashleigh Atkins enjoy a stroll on Cronulla Beach, where coastal erosion is a serious threat to properties, according to a new report. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

The study found the combined value of NSW coastal properties currently exposed to coastal erosion damage is $25bn.

In Sydney, Cronulla Beach homes face the biggest risk.

In 2022 North Cronulla beach almost disappeared as huge swells smashed the sandbank. Picture: James Gourley

The study found there were currently 148 Cronulla properties under a “very high risk assessment” of coastal erosion. By 2050 that figure increases to 184 properties.

In 2022 North Cronulla beach almost disappeared as huge swell smashed the sandbank protecting the local shops, walkway and homes.

Plans to avoid a repeat through a sea wall constructed of 7000 tonnes of sandstone boulder were described as a balancing act between keeping homes safe and protecting the environment.

Sutherland Mayor Carmelo Pesce told The Saturday Telegraph this week: “When it got eroded it (the sand) sat in the bay but it all came back.

“We mitigated quite a lot around North Cronulla with the amount of tonnage of stone we put there. We were dredging in Port Hacking and dumped it out and it’s bought the beach back.”

The report says 40 per cent of all properties in NSW are now at ‘moderate to high risk’ of flooding. Picture: AAP

Asked if there was any concern for future coastal erosion, Mr Pesce was confident Cronulla was not facing a disaster scenario of homes claimed by wild seas.

“I think over the years … in 1974 we lost surf clubs in Cronulla area, if you plan ahead and mitigate and take action you will see less damage. You have to plan ahead,” Mr Pesce said.

“The emergency works took many months, at times through the evening and on weekends, and staff ensured our community remained informed throughout, even spending time on the ground to answer questions and address concerns.”

Port Stephens tops the list of towns currently under threat of coastal erosion with a “very high risk assessment” against 150 properties.

The beachside enclaves of Yamba, Port Macquarie and Old Bar, near Foster, are all among the top 20 towns across the state likely to feel the worst impacts of coastal erosion by 2050.

The investigation also found 40 per cent of all properties in NSW are now at “moderate to high risk’ of flooding.

The combined local government areas that make up the Sydney basin are the areas most at risk over the next 30 years.

The 2019-2020 Black Summer fires cost NSW $4.9bn. Picture: AAP

When it comes to bushfires the investigation claims the number of Eurobodalla properties at high risk of bushfire today, 2,584, will treble to 7,688 by 2050.

The area described as “Blue Mountains National Park” topped the list for most properties in NSW now under very high risk from bushfires at 1068, and also tops the list in 30 years.

Malua Bay near Batemans Bay on the south coast has no homes listed as currently under very high bushfire risk.

But it leaps to second on the list of areas with 882 future properties under very high risk in 30 years’.

The report found the 2019-2020 Black Summer fires cost NSW $4.9bn.

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