Hot and firey: Sky News Weather’s severe outlook for year ahead
Five consecutive months of record rain are required to break the drought crippling NSW. It comes as Sky News Weather’s severe outlook warns Sydneysiders should brace for a hot, dry and firey summer. INTERACTIVE: SEE THE FORECAST
NSW
Don't miss out on the headlines from NSW. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Hotter and drier weather in NSW will worsen our worst-ever drought over the next few months, and the Big Dry won’t break for at least two years and only if there is unprecedented rainfalls.
That’s according to Sky News Weather chief meteorologist Tom Saunders, who has forecast there is a good chance of a return to normal rainfall in NSW early in 2020 after a dry and hot Spring and early summer.
But Mr Saunders warned it will take years to erode record rainfall deficits because such little rain has fallen across NSW since the drought took hold in March 2017 that even the wettest year on record would not be enough rain to stop the drought impacting 95.1 per cent of the state.
Mr Saunders said it would take five record months of rain in a row across the driest areas of NSW to change the brutal drought conditions, which is “statistically almost impossible”.
“Even if rainfall returns to normal in summer, it’s not going to be drought breaking rain, it’ll be slight drought relief,” Mr Saunders said.
“We need an extended period of wet weather for two years.
“A few rain events are not going to wipe out this drought.”
Sydney recorded almost double the monthly average rainfall in four days last week with 112mm, well above the 68mm average for September.
MORE FROM JACK MORPHET:
Parents sleeping with babies could be banned at short-term stays
Cameras installed to help save rock fishers from drowning
But Sydney and the Central Coast are the drenched exceptions to an otherwise bone dry state, where fires are raging and dams are dwindling.
Australia has recorded its hottest start to a year based on maximum temperature records and Sydney is “almost guaranteed” to stay hotter than average for the next six months, Mr Saunders said.
The next seven months, between October and April, is a time meteorologists refer to as the severe weather season because it is when Australia experiences bush fires, cyclones and dangerous heatwaves.
The upcoming severe weather season is “almost guaranteed” to be hotter than average for the twentieth year running, which Mr Saunders put down to global warming.
“The driving force behind the forecast is the continued and increasing influence of global warming, which ensures most years are now hotter than historical averages,” he said.
Sky News Weather has forecast a very dry spring and start to summer with increased risks of prolonged dry spells, dust storms and a horror bushfire season.
Despite the hot and dry forecast, the upcoming thunderstorm season is likely to be extremely active and severe across the state.
Between 17 and 21 severe thunderstorms are forecast to strike within a 150 kilometre radius of Sydney CBD between October and April, which will bring hail bigger than a $2 coin, wind gusts stronger than 90km.h and flash flooding.
The long term average maximum temperature for October to April is 24.2C, but the forecast for the next seven months is an average temperature of 26C.
Cold water has lingered off the coast of Western Australia since May, which has caused a climatic phenomenon called positive Indian Ocean Diopole (IOD) that prevents clouds forming and bringing rain to NSW.
As a result, there’s a 60 to 70 per cent chance of below average rainfall in NSW this severe weather season.
However, Mr Saunders predicts warm waters to return to the coast off Western Australia by the end of the year, negating the impact of the positive IOD.
If that coincides with a tropical cyclone making landfall in Queensland or the Gulf of Carpentaria and bringing moist air south, farmers and thirsty rural cities would be in with their best chance for drought-breaking rain.
Two or three cyclones are likely off the Queensland east coast this year, with one coastal crossing.
SKY NEWS WEATHER EXPERTS
A naval warfare officer with more than a decade of experience aboard hydrographic survey ships and frigates has joined the ranks of Sky News Weather.
Former Royal Australian Navy Maritime Geospatial Officer Alison Osborne still has to interpret the weather with precision, but now her audience need to know whether to take a brollie instead of whether they can launch helicopters at sea.
The science hasn’t changed but the pressure of live TV is a new challenge for the former bridge watch keeper.
“It’s nerve racking to do live crosses but you just keep going and get through it,” Ms Osborne said.
“So far it’s all run been run of the mill and nothing horrendous has happened yet — and hopefully it never does.
Sky News Weather last week launched the most advanced weather studio in the country, at its headquarters in North Ryde.
The studio will broadcast live rolling updates, extended coverage during severe weather, and cutting-edge temperature and storm forecast graphics.
“Our investment in our new studio, graphics, and video-on-demand service highlights our
commitment to viewers of Australia’s only 24-hour weather channel,” Sky News chief executive Paul Whittaker said.
“The appointment of Alison comes at a pivotal time as we strengthen our weather team and as the channel as the channel marks 20 years on air.”