Furious farmers ambush Nationals in the bush
The Nationals lost their once-unshakeable hold on the regions at Saturday’s state election bushwhacking, with the party’s deputy leader announcing his exit as almost 60 per cent of the state’s farming regions fell into the hands of minor parties.
The Nationals lost their once-unshakeable hold on the regions at Saturday’s state election bushwhacking, with the party’s deputy leader announcing his exit as almost 60 per cent of the state’s farming regions fell into the hands of minor parties.
Upper house MP and Water Minister Niall Blair announced yesterday he would step down from NSW Parliament after enduring immense pressure over the massive fish kills in Menindee.
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The drought-stricken region lies in Barwon, one of three regional NSW Nationals seats likely to change hands after a bruising election in which the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers made massive gains.
Apart from facing the loss of Barwon for the first time in 69 years, the country party also lost the seat of Murray for the first time in 35 years and is about to lose the north coast seat of Lismore for the first time in half a century.
The Nats also failed to win back the former rural strongholds of Wagga Wagga and Orange, while the drought-ravaged Upper Hunter remains on a knife’s edge.
Apart from Lismore, those seats take in prime farmland throughout the Murray, Riverina, Central West, Far West and Orana and Upper Hunter regions, which account for about 59 per cent of the state’s agricultural production.
Mr Blair did not shy away from how the issue of water management during the state’s worst-ever drought had affected the party’s standing, but cited the personal toll the job had taken, including on his wife Mel and son Lachlan.
“I cannot deny that the level of aggression directed towards me around water policy has had a profound impact,” he said.
Mr Blair’s announcement came as the blame game started among the Nationals, with one MP accusing former Barwon MP Kevin Humphries of being absent from the electorate for most of his tenure.
“It covers 44 per cent of the state and yet the bloke never lived in it.”
Another Nat conceded that the party may have been trying to be too many things in too many increasingly disparate electorates.
“We’re fighting the Greens on one hand, we’re fighting the Shooters west of the Great Dividing Range on completely different issues,” the senior Nationals source said.
Previously rusted-on Nationals voters Tony Monk and his wife Chris, both 64, decided to side with the SFF after one of the worst droughts on record forced them to sell their farm at Tooraweenah, northeast of Dubbo, which has been in the family for 100 years.
“The Nationals haven’t done a thing to help us survive the drought and they just thought farmers would vote for them anyway — but they were wrong,” Mr Monk said.
They were among the growers who blamed the Nats for inadequate drought assistance, the state government’s refusal to declare the drought a natural disaster, and water for crops flowing across the border into South Australia.
The Monks voted for SFF Barwon candidate and cattle farmer Roy Butler, who is likely to upset the Nationals when prepoll counting resumes today.
After 21,315 votes were counted in Barwon on Saturday night, the Nationals were only 400 votes behind but 30 per cent of the electorate voted early, mainly in the western reaches of the state where the rivers have run dry.
The Nationals didn’t register big enough wins at polling booths in Barwon’s east and are set to cop a hiding when pre-poll votes are counted in parched towns closer to the South Australian border such as Broken Hill, Wilcannia and Menindee.
Having already lost key farming seats Wagga Wagga and Murray and with Barwon, Dubbo and Upper Hunter in serious peril, the Nationals have lost their core farming base.
FAMILIES COASTING IN THE FAR NORTH
By Campbell Gellie and Ed Boyd
The Greens have kept their stranglehold on the former Nationals fortress of Ballina and Country Labor has dealt the Nationals more pain by being in the box seat to steal Lismore.
Ballina, previously the electoral district of Byron, was held by the Nationals from 1927 until the 2015 election, when Greens MP Tamara Smith took the seat from Don Page.
On Saturday, Ms Smith increased her margin from 3.1 per cent to 7.4 per cent over Nationals candidate Ben Franklin, with big wins in polling booths at Byron Bay, Brunswick Heads, Lennox Head and the previously industrial town of Ballina.
“We have campaigned for action on climate change and fair funding for our region and the voters have responded by giving me the privilege of representing them for another four years,” Ms Smith said yesterday.
Compounding the pain for the Nationals was well-known former federal and NSW Legislative Council member Janelle Saffin leading Nationals candidate Austin Curtin in the seat of Lismore.
The only saving grace for the Nationals was MP Geoff Provest who bucked the statewide trend to increase his margin in Tweed over Labor candidate Craig Elliot by 0.8 per cent.
Despite not calling the result yesterday afternoon, Ms Saffin appears destined to win Lismore with a 3 per cent lead, riding on preference votes from the Greens. Ms Saffin said this swing to Labor and the Greens in the north coast was a long-running trend as university educated professionals moved into the region to enjoy the hinterland and beaches.
“There is a change of demographic and we are seeing more progressive voters than conservative voters,” she said.
Ecologist Renae Baker, 46, and husband Daniel Pawsey, 38, moved to Bangalow, near Ballina with their children Christina, 8 and Darcy, 5, six years ago.
While they live a very “green” lifestyle, they are Labor voters.
Ms Baker said people were flocking the area because they couldn’t afford to buy in Sydney.
“We’re green in our living and thinking. The environment is big up here,'’ she said.
BLAIR GOES TO WATER AS COALITION GETS SET FOR MINISTERIAL MOVES
The Cabinet reshuffle this week is shaping up as a battle of the wills between the coalition partners with the Nationals set to strongly resist the loss of a minister with senior Liberals believing their country counterparts deserve to lose a seat at the table.
It comes as Nationals deputy leader Niall Blair spectacularly resigned last night, just a day after being returned to government as an Upper House MP.
The regional water minister will sit on the backbench before leaving parliament entirely with his resignation opening up a senior position in the National’s leadership with Paul Toole, Melinda Pavey and Sarah Mitchell front runners to replace him as Mr Barilao’s deputy.
It also means Mr Blair’s portfolios of Primary Industries, Regional Water and Trade and Industry are up for grabs with Upper House MP Bronnie Taylor first in line for promotion to Nationals cabinet.
But the Nationals face a battle to keep their positions in the coalition cabinet.
It’s tradition for the Nationals to hold one of the four most senior ministries - police, health, education or transport.
Current police minister Troy Grant quit at Saturday’s election leaving that portfolio available and it’s understood current Corrections Minister David Elliott has his eye on it.
But Premier Gladys Berejiklian also has to fill the role of emergency services that Mr Grant vacated as well as appoint a new minister for Family and Community Services, Social Housing and Prevention of Domestic Violence and Sexual Assault with Pru Goward’s resignation at the election leaving them vacant.
It’s expected Environment Minister Gabrielle Upton will be demoted to the backbench as will Multicultural Minster Ray Williams while Planning Minister Anthony Roberts may be dumped but placated with the role of Speaker.
If the portfolios remains grouped as they are, this means there could be five minister roles up for grabs in the coalition when the reshuffle is worked out this week.
It’s also understood Education Minister Rob Stokes wants to moving into the Planning portfolio.
Senior Liberals were yesterday agitating for the Nationals to lose a cabinet position, arguing their loss of the electorates of Barwon and Murray on Saturday meant their claim on minister positions was weakened.
“When they lost Orange they should have lost a minister, now they’ve lost two more they need to lose at least another minister at very least Gladys needs to take one ministry off the Nats. And Grant’s role should be replaced by the Libs … the Libs will be pushing aggressively for this,” a Liberal source said.
It’s understood the Nationals will dig in and try to maintain their cabinet positions.
First in line for promotion from the Liberal party to a ministry is Parramatta MP Geoff Lee, left-faction aligned Mark Coure, hard-right Kurin-gai MP Alister Henskens and centre right and Upper House MPs Natasha Maclaren Jones and Scott Farlow.
Ms Berejiklian has a new mandate that she will not be beholden to factional warlords with some expecting she will make positions that do little to disrupt the status quo.
LIBS CANDIDATE ON SONG IN EAST HILLS
You could say Wendy Lindsay walked a fine line.
The Liberal Party candidate — who used to moonlight as a singer in a Johnny Cash tribute act — last night looked set to win NSW’s most marginal seat in a close-run contest.
Ms Lindsay had secured just shy of 52 per cent two party preferred votes as at 4.45pm yesterday, ahead of Labor’s Cameron Murphy on 48 per cent, with postal votes still being counted.
Ms Lindsay is a local radio station broadcaster who has previously performed as June Carter Cash in the tribute band Cash Only, performing songs made famous by the country music legend such as I Walk the Line.
The southwest Sydney seat had been a Labor stronghold since its creation in 1953 until the 2011 ALP wipe-out, when the Liberals’ Glenn Brookes won it, then held off a challenge from Mr Murphy in 2015 to secure a wafer-thin 0.4 per cent margin.
Mr Brookes did not recontest this election.
THE BOOTHS AND BIG BUCKS
The major parties are set for multimillion-dollar cash windfalls once the votes from Saturday’s election are fully counted.
Under election funding laws, political parties will be able to claim back expenditure at a rate of $4 per first preference vote in the lower house and $3 for first preference votes in the Legislative Council.
This applies to parties that receive at least 4 per cent of the total number of first preference votes in either the upper or lower houses, or have at least one candidate elected.
The electoral refunds for the major parties should be lower this year because of the swings recorded against them.
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