Farmers need up to five months rainfall to save livelihoods
With 2019 now the second driest year on record, NSW farmers need multiple significant rain events to get rivers flowing, fill dams and moisture into the soil in order to save their livelihoods.
NSW
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There will be no relief for drought-ravaged regions this summer as forecasters predict farmers now need as much as five months of above average rainfall to save their livelihoods.
With 2019 now the second driest year on record to date, NSW farmers need multiple significant rain events to get rivers flowing, fill dams and moisture into the soil.
The unprecedented dry conditions, fuelled by an El Nino-style system over the Indian Ocean and a warmer stratosphere over Antarctica pushing more hot westerly winds across NSW, are expected to ease in January but that won’t yet help farmers according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
Head of long range forecasts at the Bureau, Andrew Watkins said while the return to a more normal forecast from late January was positive, that time of year was typically hot and dry in NSW anyway.
“Rainfall outlook for January starting to ease back a little bit closer to normal and that’s great (because we’re) starting to get out of the worst of it,” he said.
“But that still doesn’t suggest there will be widespread above average rainfall which is really what we need to remove those long term serious rainfall deficiencies we have over NSW.
“We’re heading back to more neutral patterns in January, February and March, but unfortunately what we really want to go back to is wet patterns.”
As a result of the extended dry period Dr Watkins said NSW would probably need four or five months of above average rainfall to break the drought.
“What we do need to see is several months of above average rainfall … to really get most of the rivers flowing, to get soils wetted up again and to start seeing some good increases in dams.”
Earlier this month, state and federal agriculture ministers met in Moree in the states’ northwest to discuss the best strategies to combat the drought, where they were advised there would be no significant rain until at least April.
The NSW Department of Primary Industries leader of climate applications Anthony Clark said it would be an “extremely difficult summer” for the state.
“Below average rainfall and warmer than normal temperatures throughout spring has seen the widespread drought conditions continue to impact NSW with livestock feed deficits, water shortages and low crop yields,” he said.
“Most of NSW has now experienced drought conditions for longer than two years.”
Dr Clark said about 99 per cent of the state was drought affected, with “intense” conditions particularly devastating in the far western and north eastern regions.
“Drought conditions have intensified in the Central West and in parts of the Hunter, Central Tablelands and South East of NSW,” he said.
“Unfortunately … the latest forecast is for an increased chance of low rainfall and high temperatures with farmers and regional communities expecting to stay in a drought response setting well into 2020.”