Election eve Newspoll says Gladys Berejiklian will win power in tight contest
An election eve Newspoll predicts Gladys Berejiklian, pictured casting her vote today, will become the state’s first elected female premier in history when the Coalition beats Labor 51-49 in today’s contest. READ THE FULL RESULTS HERE.
NSW
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Premier Gladys Berejiklian has narrowly edged ahead of Michael Daley in what is likely to be the state’s tightest election in almost three decades.
The latest Newspoll conducted for The Weekend Australian has put the Coalition ahead of Labor 51-49 on a two-party preferred basis, after what has been a horror last week of campaigning for Mr Daley.
And the poll has the government securing an even clearer win in Sydney, where it was ahead 52-48, while the rest of NSW was deadlocked 50-50.
It is the first concrete sign that Mr Daley’s divisive comments on Asian migrants, revealed by The Daily Telegraph on Monday, may have hurt him badly in Sydney seats.
Ms Berejiklian is bidding to become the state’s first elected female premier in history, and the polling shows the Coalition with a primary vote of 41 per cent — a 4.6 per cent drop from the last election. Labor sits on 35 per cent, the Greens 10 per cent and other candidates 14 per cent.
In a sign the government believes that it can pull ahead in Sydney on the back of Mr Daley’s anti-migrant remarks, The Saturday Telegraph can reveal the Liberals went on a final advertising push in three Australian-Chinese newspapers this morning, with the Labor leader’s offensive remarks featuring prominently in both Chinese and English.
It is also understood Prime Minister Scott Morrison will hit the hustings today, visiting select voting booths in the Shire in seats the party wants to protect.
The Saturday Telegraph has been briefed that secret internal polling held by the government last night had senior Liberal figures last night preparing for the loss of three Sydney seats and up to three seats in the regions.
Combined, this would strip Ms Berejiklian of majority government.
In Sydney, the government was bracing for possible losses in Coogee, East Hills and Penrith. Internal research also has the seats of Heathcote and Goulburn deadlocked at 50-50.
Senior government sources said the party expects to lose three of those five, most likely including Coogee and East Hills.
The Nationals also faced losing Lismore, Barwon and Murray.
The government was hoping its Daley anti-China ads would insulate seats like East Hills and even make ground in Labor territories such as Kogarah and Strathfield. But the Liberals were not expecting to win those seats, with recriminations already flying internally this week that the party should have been better prepared to contest them.
It comes as the Nationals received a win last night, with the Greens forced to remove corflutes in the crucial north coast battleground after a Supreme Court injunction put in place because the signs ordered voters to “number every box”.
In a final frantic day it was clear that Penrith — the Western Sydney seat of Sports Minister Stuart Ayres — was a key prize for both sides, with both leaders making last ditch visits.
Ms Berejiklian was supported by former Prime Minister John Howard at the local RSL, marking his second appearance on the campaign.
“I’ve always been a tremendous fan of her (Gladys) because she’s straightforward — what you see is what you get. She stands for things, she’s said what she believes in, she’s very authentic,” Mr Howard said. “She also can add up and does her sums, and understands things very well.”
Mr Daley was hot on Ms Berejiklian’s heels, targeting the local issue of tolls on the M4 — a topic of major voter anger that will work against Mr Ayres.
Before that, his first stop was Allianz Stadium, his most frequently-visited territory as he tries to win votes on his promise to not spend taxpayers’ money knocking down and rebuilding the stadium.
The Sydney Cricket Ground is in Heffron, a seat Labor holds comfortably on a 14.1 per cent margin and which was previously held by former premier Kristina Keneally.
Ms Berejiklian also visited East Hills and Granville — both seats with significant Chinese heritage — as well as the at-risk seat of Heathcote.
If the Premier loses her majority, she will have to form the first minority government since 1991.
Even that vote was more decisive than the current polls, with Nick Greiner’s Coalition recording 52.7 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, but the margin was built up in landslides in its heartland.
Still, on a seat-by-seat basis, it found itself one seat short of a majority.