Climate change: Experts say Australia will find it hard to meet its promises

Australia is being warned not to fall into a trap set by other nations when it comes to carbon emissions - particularly when China won’t play by the rules

Australia is being warned not to get caught in “geopolitical gamesmanship” by being forced to keep up with countries making deep emissions reduction pledges they cannot keep in the wake of last week’s US-hosted climate summit.

“The extraordinary thing is people are taking politicians’ promises as sacrosanct and historical delivery as irrelevant,” one senior government source told The Daily Telegraph, noting that without firm commitments from China, the promises of other countries would amount to nothing.

Chinese flags adorn a coal mine.

With Australia making significant progress against emissions targets versus other nations, analysts are warning that big promises made at international conferences can be more about seeking an economic advantage than ­saving the planet.

“This is just geopolitical gamesmanship,” Institute for Public Affairs director of research Daniel Wild said.

According to Mr Wild, under the Paris Agreement, Australia’s climate targets are among the deepest in the world — making them much harder for the nation to meet.

With many nations — though, notably, not major emitter China — pledging further CO2 reductions at last week’s US climate summit, Mr Wild said that Australia was ­already doing well in terms of its own cuts.

He analysed data from the Climate Action Tracker website and found that only eight of nearly 200 signatory nations were on track to fully meet their emissions targets under the Paris Agreement.

Joe Biden delivers remarks and participates in the virtual Leaders Summit on Climate.

Those nations are Gambia, Bhutan, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, Philippines, and India — with most of those representing only a tiny fraction of global emissions.

“Countries that are putting forward audacious targets don’t have any real intent of meeting them,” Mr Wild said.

“They are trying to game competitor nations (by saddling them with unachievable targets).

“This is where China is ­outplaying the Western world on this.

“Under the Paris Agreement they are completely unconstrained.”

Mr Wild also pointed out that with Australia’s large uranium reserves, there is no reason other than politics that we could not have zero emission atomic energy.

“If you wanted to be serious about this, that is an angle you would want to take,” he said.

Even if nuclear power is not necessarily on the table in the immediate term, some experts see large-scale opportunities for Australia in the current push to reduce emissions.

“Low emission technologies (LETs) — like carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) — are playing a vital role in the energy mix as we move towards a net-zero carbon emissions future,” said Mark McCallum, chief executive of Low Emission Technology Australia.

“They are crucial in providing clean, affordable and reliable power — as well as reducing or removing carbon emissions from vital but ‘hard-to-abate’ industries, such as steel and cement.”