Christmas lunch prices to soar as NSW drought increases meat cost
Leg hams are in short supply, Christmas trees are patchy, and turkeys are more expensive, as the worst drought on record takes a heavy toll on the festive season. WHAT YOU CAN EXPECT TO PAY THIS YEAR.
NSW
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The traditional Christmas roast lunch will be far more expensive this year and those who leave their shopping to the last minute won’t be able to get a ham thanks to the worst drought in history.
Live Christmas trees will be smaller and scrappier but enjoy them while you can — thanks to the drought, we won’t have any in a couple of years.
The only good news is Sydney rock oysters and prawns are plentiful and will retail for the same price or cheaper this year, although anyone wanting mud crabs will get clawed as the drought has taken a toll on some seafood stocks.
There won’t be any hams on the shelves after December 23 — although a run on the Christmas favourite could see leg hams completely sold out sooner, according to the peak pork body. There are 324,000 fewer pigs in Australia than there were last year, dropping from 5.4 million to 5.1 million, as farmers can’t afford to feed them.
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Keeping animals fed is more than twice as expensive as it was three years ago, which has forced farmers to sell their livestock to slaughter ahead of peak Christmas demand.
“Normally around Christmas, supply and demand are evenly matched,” Australian Pork’s Peter Haydon said.
“But there were fewer pigs produced this year compared to last year, so get in early to avoid disappointment.
“A lot of hams are bought in the last two weeks before Christmas but people who buy latest are most likely to miss out.
“Anyone who leaves it to the last two days will probably miss out.”
African Swine Fever in the Philippines and East Timor is stretching the country’s biosecurity borders but shoppers shouldn’t be worried about the quality of this year’s leg hams, which are all homegrown.
Cyovaced hams will last in the fridge for four weeks before being opened.
Turkey farmers, who are faced with the same spike in feed costs from $190 per tonne of grain in 2016 to $440 per tonne, have largely increased their farm gate price by 10 per cent.
The cost of turkey has risen from about $7 per kg to $7.70 per kg, which will mean a $2.80 mark-up for a typical 4kg bird.
“We haven’t passed on all of our increased costs by any stretch because you become nervous abut what the market can handle,” Tamworth turkey farmer Col Quast said.
“The increase is less than the price of a cup of coffee, and if farmers could see that it would make them very happy.”
Chickens have generally increased by a dollar per kilogram in the past year.
Chicken breast has risen from about $8.50 to $9.50 per kg and barbecued birds have risen from $10 to $11.
Prawns will be about 20 per cent cheaper than last year thanks to good rain in north Queensland, with medium-sized cooked prawns costing an estimated $18 per kg and top-of-the-range ocean caught extra-large cooked king prawns to fetch around $45 per kg, according to Queensland Seafood Marketers Association president Marshall Betzel.
Sydney rock oysters are tipped to cost between $19-$22 per kg, roughly the same as last year.
“The seafood industry has been feeling the effects of low rainfall and higher temperatures as a result of drought and fires, including mud crabs, pipi, octopus and estuary fish such as tailor,” Gus Dannoun from Sydney Fish Market said.
“For anyone concerned about prices, this Christmas might be a good opportunity to try something different such as commercial scallops in the shell, Gould’s squid and sand or school whiting.
“Instead of reaching for biggest prawns available, the insiders tip is to try the small to medium sized varieties, which are sweeter and tastier and often a much lower price.”
Christmas trees on the whole will be smaller, have bare bottoms and have more dead needles close to trunk this year, which will need to be shaken out before going on display.
Christmas trees take between three and five years to grow and new plantings have been dying at up to six times the normal rate since 2017, so supply will increasingly dry up from next year and fall off a cliff in 2022.
Oakdale Christmas tree grower Lynette Keanelly hasn’t planted a single tree this year, lost half of a modest planting of 500 trees last year and didn’t plant any trees in 2017.
Ms Keanelly has increased prices for the first time in three years, selling 1m trees for $50, 1.5m trees for $60 and 2m trees for $70, which last year were a blanket $55 regardless of size.
“There is going to be a real shortage of trees,” Ms Keanelly said.
The urban sprawl has also put the squeeze on Christmas trees, as farms in the Sydney basin are swallowed up by new suburbs.
Plum pudding producers have by in large absorbed increased costs, especially the 30 increase in the cost of butter and both Coles and Woolworths will sell their 700 gram plum pudding for $4, which is the same price as last year.
Sutherland Shire plum pudding maker Mandy Krywulycz, who owns Itha’s Puddings, has kept her prices the same for the past four years but expects she’ll have to hike the price next year in line with dried fruit and dairy prices.
The family-owned operation has been so far able to balance increased costs with increased sales, as more people opt to eat store-bought plum puddings than slave over the stove for eight hours.
“More families now buy plum puddings because grandma has passed away or she’s in a nursing home, and the generation down is still working and doesn’t have time to cook a plum pudding,” she said.
Itha’s Puddings, made with Ms Krywulycz’s grandmother’s recipe, cost $49 for a one kg pudding that feeds between eight and 10 people, or $106 for a three kg pudding that feeds up to 30.
The drought has not had an impact on the price or availability of cherries and mangoes, which will sell at the same price as last year.