Anthony Albanese’s tax backflip a boost for electoral fortunes

Voters are overwhelmingly in favour of the changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts but Labor has fallen behind in one key area.

Voters are overwhelmingly in favour of the changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts but Labor has fallen behind with women ­voters — the one’s most likely to be holding the family budget together.

A national poll by Redbridge shows Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s gamble on breaking his tax promise has paid off, especially in the seats that will matter at the next election.

But, in a worrying sign for the Government, less than a third of voters think the country is heading in the right direction, while almost half think the country is going the wrong way. Equally ominously for the Opposition, more voters say they trust the Labor Party to best manage the economy.

Labor’s primary vote was unchanged since December at 33 per cent but the Coalition has picked up 3 points to be 38 per cent in the survey, which was conducted in the first week of February.

Voters have backed Anthony Albanese’s changes to the stage three tax cuts . Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

This has resulted in an improvement in the ­Coalition’s two-party preferred vote, which rose from 47.2 per cent in December to 48.8 per cent, while the Government has dropped from 52.8 per cent to 51.2 per cent.

The improvement in the Coalition’s position has come almost entirely from an increase in its support among women.

Since August Labor’s female primary vote in RedBridge’s polling has fallen from 35 per cent to 30 per cent while the Coalition’s has leapt from 36 per cent to 41. On a two-party preferred basis the Coalition now has a narrow lead with women voters of 51 per cent to 49 per cent.

As recently as December, RedBridge had Labor leading the Coalition 54 per cent to 46 per cent on a 2-PP basis.

On negative gearing which the Opposition has been warning is at risk of being wound back in May’s budget, voters are evenly split with 39 per cent saying it should be left alone and 39 per cent saying it should either be phased out or completely scrapped immediately.

RedBridge director Kosmos Samaras said that with 60 cent of voters either supporting or strongly supporting the changes to Stage 3, it was clear it had been a strategic success.

“More importantly, it has worked well in the outer suburbs and provincial cities which will shape the next federal election result,” he said.

“This is an ominous sign for the Coalition as Labor has gained back some of the narrative and political terrain in critical electorates.”

His colleague Tony Barry said that, with Labor ahead 32 per cent to 28 per cent over who would make a better economic manager, it was clear the political landscape was currently very contestable.

“Of concern for the Albanese Government is that there is a very strong mood for change, but of greater concern for the Coalition is that Labor has a contestable lead on economic management, which is presently the most salient issue in the electorate,” he said.

“At the moment it appears that Albanese’s decision to take a risk on trust is being rewarded.”

“Every political decision is a risk versus reward proposition. At the moment it appears that Albanese’s decision to take a risk on trust is being rewarded by demonstrating to lower and middle-income earners that he is listening to their concerns and providing them an offering.”

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