Alan Finkel: New top scientist wants to phase out fossil fuels
MALCOLM Turnbull’s new top scientist would punch a $100 billion hole in the national economy if his dream of phasing out fossil fuels came to fruition.
NSW
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PRIME Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s new top scientist would punch a $100 billion hole in the national economy if his dream of phasing out fossil fuels came to fruition in the next five years.
Incoming chief scientist Dr Alan Finkel caused controversy on Tuesday as he outlined his vision to consign fossil fuels to the scrapheap while spruiking the merits of renewable and nuclear power.
“My vision is for a country, a society, a world where we don’t use any coal, oil or natural gas because we have zero-emissions electricity in huge abundance. But you can’t get there overnight,” Dr Finkel, who begins his new job in January, said.
But there would be a significant cost from phasing out fossil fuels — depending on how quickly it is done.
The liquefied natural gas industry is forecast to contribute $55 billion to GDP by 2020. Cumulative capital and operational expenditure within the LNG sector is set to grow 41 per cent to $363 billion by 2020, providing jobs and economic benefits across the eastern seaboard, including in rural and regional centres. NSW is among the states expected to benefit significantly from an increase in LNG production.
The coal industry contributed $43 billion to GDP in 2011-2012 — 3.1 per cent.
FINKEL TALKS ABOUT NUCLEAR, WIND AND SOLAR POWER
The precise cost of phasing out fossil fuels would depend entirely on the timing and what replacement energy sources were available.
Dr Finkel suggested this would be done only once zero-emission electricity was widely available — including nuclear power.
About 2 per cent of the nation’s energy needs are now produced from solar, while wind accounted for about 4 per cent and hydro-electricity 6 per cent. All of those percentages are trending up and are expected to continue growing.
Professor Warwick McKibbin, head of the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis at Australian National University’s Crawford School of Public Policy, said phasing out fossil fuels within a few years would “destroy” the economy. But given a much longer time, the cost could be nothing.
“If it was in 200 years, then it may be free because of major technical changes over the next two centuries,” he said.
Professor McKibbin said it would not be “impossible” to phase out fossil fuels over the next 50 years.
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